Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures

Anna H. Olafsdottir*, Kjell Rong Utne, Jan Arge Jacobsen, Teunis Jansen, Guðmundur J. Óskarsson, Leif Nøttestad, Bjarki Þ. Elvarsson, Cecilie Broms, Aril Slotte

*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

In the mid-2000s, summer feeding distribution of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Nordic Seas began expanding into new areas. The present study explores how spawning stock biomass (SSB) and environmental conditions influenced this expansion using data from scientific surveys conducted in Nordic Seas from 1997 to 2016. During that period mackerel distribution range increased three-fold and the centre-of-gravity shifted westward by 1650 km and northward by 400 km. Distribution range peaked in 2014 and was positively correlated to SSB. Mackerel was present in temperatures ranging from 5 °C to 15 °C, but preferred areas with temperatures between 9 °C and 13 °C according to univariate quotient analysis. Generalized additive models showed that both mackerel occurrence and density were positively related to location, ambient temperature, mesozooplankton density and SSB, explaining 47% and 32% of deviance, respectively. Mackerel relative mean weight-at-length was positively related to location, day-of-year, temperature and SSB, but not with mesozooplankton density, explaining 40% of the deviance. We conclude that geographical expansion of mackerel during the summer feeding season in Nordic Seas was driven by increasing mackerel stock size and constrained by availability of preferred temperature and abundance of mesozooplankton. Marine climate with multidecadal variability probably impacted the observed distributional changes but were not evaluated. Our results were limited to the direct effects of temperature, mesozooplankton abundance, and SSB on distribution range during the last two decades and should be viewed as such.
Original languageEnglish
JournalDeep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography
Volume159
Pages (from-to)152-168
ISSN0967-0645
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Northeast Atlantic mackerel
  • Scomber scombus
  • Geographical expansion
  • Nordic seas
  • Spawning stock biomass
  • Temperature
  • Mesozooplankton abundance
  • Mean relative wight-at-length

Cite this

Olafsdottir, Anna H. ; Utne, Kjell Rong ; Jacobsen, Jan Arge ; Jansen, Teunis ; Óskarsson, Guðmundur J. ; Nøttestad, Leif ; Elvarsson, Bjarki Þ. ; Broms, Cecilie ; Slotte, Aril. / Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures. In: Deep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography. 2019 ; Vol. 159. pp. 152-168.
@article{26e08d56c7e74a4093f942878964a524,
title = "Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures",
abstract = "In the mid-2000s, summer feeding distribution of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Nordic Seas began expanding into new areas. The present study explores how spawning stock biomass (SSB) and environmental conditions influenced this expansion using data from scientific surveys conducted in Nordic Seas from 1997 to 2016. During that period mackerel distribution range increased three-fold and the centre-of-gravity shifted westward by 1650 km and northward by 400 km. Distribution range peaked in 2014 and was positively correlated to SSB. Mackerel was present in temperatures ranging from 5 °C to 15 °C, but preferred areas with temperatures between 9 °C and 13 °C according to univariate quotient analysis. Generalized additive models showed that both mackerel occurrence and density were positively related to location, ambient temperature, mesozooplankton density and SSB, explaining 47{\%} and 32{\%} of deviance, respectively. Mackerel relative mean weight-at-length was positively related to location, day-of-year, temperature and SSB, but not with mesozooplankton density, explaining 40{\%} of the deviance. We conclude that geographical expansion of mackerel during the summer feeding season in Nordic Seas was driven by increasing mackerel stock size and constrained by availability of preferred temperature and abundance of mesozooplankton. Marine climate with multidecadal variability probably impacted the observed distributional changes but were not evaluated. Our results were limited to the direct effects of temperature, mesozooplankton abundance, and SSB on distribution range during the last two decades and should be viewed as such.",
keywords = "Northeast Atlantic mackerel, Scomber scombus, Geographical expansion, Nordic seas, Spawning stock biomass, Temperature, Mesozooplankton abundance, Mean relative wight-at-length",
author = "Olafsdottir, {Anna H.} and Utne, {Kjell Rong} and Jacobsen, {Jan Arge} and Teunis Jansen and {\'O}skarsson, {Gu{\dh}mundur J.} and Leif N{\o}ttestad and Elvarsson, {Bjarki {\TH}.} and Cecilie Broms and Aril Slotte",
year = "2019",
doi = "10.1016/j.dsr2.2018.05.023",
language = "English",
volume = "159",
pages = "152--168",
journal = "Deep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography",
issn = "0967-0645",
publisher = "Pergamon Press",

}

Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures. / Olafsdottir, Anna H.; Utne, Kjell Rong; Jacobsen, Jan Arge; Jansen, Teunis; Óskarsson, Guðmundur J.; Nøttestad, Leif; Elvarsson, Bjarki Þ.; Broms, Cecilie; Slotte, Aril.

In: Deep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 159, 2019, p. 152-168.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Geographical expansion of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic Seas from 2007 to 2016 was primarily driven by stock size and constrained by low temperatures

AU - Olafsdottir, Anna H.

AU - Utne, Kjell Rong

AU - Jacobsen, Jan Arge

AU - Jansen, Teunis

AU - Óskarsson, Guðmundur J.

AU - Nøttestad, Leif

AU - Elvarsson, Bjarki Þ.

AU - Broms, Cecilie

AU - Slotte, Aril

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - In the mid-2000s, summer feeding distribution of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Nordic Seas began expanding into new areas. The present study explores how spawning stock biomass (SSB) and environmental conditions influenced this expansion using data from scientific surveys conducted in Nordic Seas from 1997 to 2016. During that period mackerel distribution range increased three-fold and the centre-of-gravity shifted westward by 1650 km and northward by 400 km. Distribution range peaked in 2014 and was positively correlated to SSB. Mackerel was present in temperatures ranging from 5 °C to 15 °C, but preferred areas with temperatures between 9 °C and 13 °C according to univariate quotient analysis. Generalized additive models showed that both mackerel occurrence and density were positively related to location, ambient temperature, mesozooplankton density and SSB, explaining 47% and 32% of deviance, respectively. Mackerel relative mean weight-at-length was positively related to location, day-of-year, temperature and SSB, but not with mesozooplankton density, explaining 40% of the deviance. We conclude that geographical expansion of mackerel during the summer feeding season in Nordic Seas was driven by increasing mackerel stock size and constrained by availability of preferred temperature and abundance of mesozooplankton. Marine climate with multidecadal variability probably impacted the observed distributional changes but were not evaluated. Our results were limited to the direct effects of temperature, mesozooplankton abundance, and SSB on distribution range during the last two decades and should be viewed as such.

AB - In the mid-2000s, summer feeding distribution of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Nordic Seas began expanding into new areas. The present study explores how spawning stock biomass (SSB) and environmental conditions influenced this expansion using data from scientific surveys conducted in Nordic Seas from 1997 to 2016. During that period mackerel distribution range increased three-fold and the centre-of-gravity shifted westward by 1650 km and northward by 400 km. Distribution range peaked in 2014 and was positively correlated to SSB. Mackerel was present in temperatures ranging from 5 °C to 15 °C, but preferred areas with temperatures between 9 °C and 13 °C according to univariate quotient analysis. Generalized additive models showed that both mackerel occurrence and density were positively related to location, ambient temperature, mesozooplankton density and SSB, explaining 47% and 32% of deviance, respectively. Mackerel relative mean weight-at-length was positively related to location, day-of-year, temperature and SSB, but not with mesozooplankton density, explaining 40% of the deviance. We conclude that geographical expansion of mackerel during the summer feeding season in Nordic Seas was driven by increasing mackerel stock size and constrained by availability of preferred temperature and abundance of mesozooplankton. Marine climate with multidecadal variability probably impacted the observed distributional changes but were not evaluated. Our results were limited to the direct effects of temperature, mesozooplankton abundance, and SSB on distribution range during the last two decades and should be viewed as such.

KW - Northeast Atlantic mackerel

KW - Scomber scombus

KW - Geographical expansion

KW - Nordic seas

KW - Spawning stock biomass

KW - Temperature

KW - Mesozooplankton abundance

KW - Mean relative wight-at-length

U2 - 10.1016/j.dsr2.2018.05.023

DO - 10.1016/j.dsr2.2018.05.023

M3 - Journal article

VL - 159

SP - 152

EP - 168

JO - Deep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography

JF - Deep-Sea Research. Part 2: Topical Studies in Oceanography

SN - 0967-0645

ER -