Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

Pierre Pinson, George Papaefthymiou, Bernd Klockl, Henrik Aalborg Nielsen

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    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind generation. The approach is evaluated on the test case of a multi-MW wind farm over a period of more than two years. Its interest for a large range of applications is discussed.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationIEEE PowerTech Conference 2007, Lausanne, Switzerland
    Publication date2007
    ISBN (Print)978-1-4244-2189-3
    Publication statusPublished - 2007
    Event2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland
    Duration: 1 Jul 20075 Jul 2007


    Conference2007 IEEE Lausanne Power Tech
    LocationSwiss Federal Institute of Technology
    Internet address

    Bibliographical note

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