Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

Pierre Pinson, George Papaefthymiou, Bernd Klockl, Henrik Aalborg Nielsen

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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    Abstract

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind generation. The approach is evaluated on the test case of a multi-MW wind farm over a period of more than two years. Its interest for a large range of applications is discussed.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationIEEE PowerTech Conference 2007, Lausanne, Switzerland
    PublisherIEEE
    Publication date2007
    ISBN (Print)978-1-4244-2189-3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2007
    EventIEEE PowerTech Conference 2007, Lausanne, Switzerland -
    Duration: 1 Jan 2007 → …

    Conference

    ConferenceIEEE PowerTech Conference 2007, Lausanne, Switzerland
    Period01/01/2007 → …

    Bibliographical note

    Copyright: 2007 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE

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