Abstract
This paper is the result of a pilot study carried out in the spring of 2004 by the Technical University of Denmark, The Royal Danish Administration of Navigation and Hydrography's and the Danish Maritime Authority. The objective of the pilot study was to illustrate a procedure that allowed a risk-based quantification of the navigational risk in a specific geographic area. The procedure reported is a two-pphase procedure where phase 1 is the screening procedure and phase 2 is the FSA or risk evaluation procedure. In phase 1, the screening procedure, it is discussed how incidents shall be registered to provide a proper basis to be used in the decision process of identifying critical areas. This specifically requires registration of related losses in a consequence matrix. Registered incidents are only the "top of the iceberg", and numerous no loss incidents, or near misses, have happened before one occurrence of an incident that results in a loss. The potential loss from all these incidents were avoided possible because of human awareness and interaction. Nonetheless, knowledge of thise incidents would provide valuable information about critical areas - if only they were reported. To obtain information about such incidents in the present study, registered AIS track records are used in combination with a so-called ship domain model. By tracking all vessels allows an identification of collision and grounding incidents as the number of crossing of the ship's "safe domain" and thereby intensify the basis for identifying navigational areas to be considered. Phase 1 can identify critical areas to be studied in more detail but it cannot provide any guidance of how much better the situation will become after the implementation of the navigational improvements and if it is worth the cost. This is the task of Phase 2 the risk evaluation procedure.
This paper illustrates and describes the two-phased procedure by an example analysis of the Baltic West where focus has been on collision incidents only. Further, deficiencies in currently available procedures for risk based collision analysis and important research needs for allowing reliable risk evaluations to be performed will be discussed.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Proceedings of 3rd International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships, ICCGS 2004 |
| Place of Publication | Japan |
| Publisher | Society of Naval Architects of Japan |
| Publication date | 2004 |
| Pages | 71-80 |
| Publication status | Published - 2004 |
| Event | 3rd International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships - Izu, Japan Duration: 25 Oct 2004 → 27 Oct 2004 Conference number: 3 |
Conference
| Conference | 3rd International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships |
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| Number | 3 |
| Country/Territory | Japan |
| City | Izu |
| Period | 25/10/2004 → 27/10/2004 |