Forecast of icing events at a wind farm in Sweden

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Abstract

This paper introduces a method for identifying icing events using a physical icing model, driven by atmospheric data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and applies it to a wind park in Sweden. Observed wind park icing events were identified by deviation from an idealized power curve and observed temperature. The events were modeled using a physical icing model with equations for both accretion and ablation mechanisms (iceBlade). The accretion model is based on the Makkonen model but was modified to make it applicable to the blades of a wind turbine rather than a static structure, and the ablation model is newly developed. The results from iceBlade are shown to outperform a 1-day persistence model and standard cylinder model in determining the times when any turbine in the wind park is being impacted by icing. The icing model was evaluated using inputs from simulations using nine different WRF physics parameterization combinations. The combination of the Thompson microphysics parameterization and version 2 of the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino PBL scheme was shown to perform best at this location. The distribution of cloud mass into the appropriate hydrometeor classes was found to be very important for forecasting the correct icing period. One concern with the iceBlade approach was the relatively high false alarm rates at the end of icing events due to the ice not being removed rapidly enough. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Volume53
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)262-281
ISSN1558-8424
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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© Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.

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