Forecast generation for real-time control of urban drainage systems using greybox modelling and radar rainfall

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Abstract

We present stochastic flow forecasts to be used in a real-time control setup for urban drainage systems. The forecasts are generated using greybox models with rain gauge and radar rainfall observations as input. Predictions are evaluated as intervals rather than just mean values. We obtain satisfactory predictions for the smaller catchment but rather large uncertainties for the bigger catchment where the applied storage cascade seems too simple. Radar rainfall introduces more uncertainty into the flow forecast model estimation. However, the radar rainfall forecasts also result in a slightly improved point prediction of
flows which we aim to exploit with a modified estimation approach in the future.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Number of pages8
Publication date2012
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Event10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics: Understanding Changing Climate and Environment and Finding Solutions - Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany
Duration: 14 Jul 201218 Jul 2012
Conference number: 10
http://hic2012.de/

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Number10
LocationHamburg University of Technology
CountryGermany
CityHamburg
Period14/07/201218/07/2012
Internet address

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