Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

Keith Brander, Anna Neuheimer, Ken Haste Andersen, Martin Hartvig

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.
Original languageEnglish
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume70
Issue number6
Pages (from-to)1065-1068
ISSN1054-3139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Cite this

Brander, Keith ; Neuheimer, Anna ; Andersen, Ken Haste ; Hartvig, Martin. / Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2013 ; Vol. 70, No. 6. pp. 1065-1068.
@article{9ad84d655317433e940f20710e9f44c2,
title = "Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections",
abstract = "There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.",
author = "Keith Brander and Anna Neuheimer and Andersen, {Ken Haste} and Martin Hartvig",
year = "2013",
doi = "10.1093/icesjms/fst055",
language = "English",
volume = "70",
pages = "1065--1068",
journal = "I C E S Journal of Marine Science",
issn = "1054-3139",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "6",

}

Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections. / Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste; Hartvig, Martin.

In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 70, No. 6, 2013, p. 1065-1068.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

AU - Brander, Keith

AU - Neuheimer, Anna

AU - Andersen, Ken Haste

AU - Hartvig, Martin

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.

AB - There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently reported in the major news media, based on publications in prominent scientific journals. Public and political awareness of the generally negative changes taking place in marine ecosystems is welcome, especially if it results in effective remedial action, but the scientific basis for such action must be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties.

U2 - 10.1093/icesjms/fst055

DO - 10.1093/icesjms/fst055

M3 - Journal article

VL - 70

SP - 1065

EP - 1068

JO - I C E S Journal of Marine Science

JF - I C E S Journal of Marine Science

SN - 1054-3139

IS - 6

ER -