Fiction and reality in the modelling world - Balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification

P. Harremoës, H. Madsen

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable by calibration/verification on the basis of the data series available, which generates elements of sheer guessing - unless the universality of the model is be based on induction, i.e. experience from the sum of all previous investigations. There is a need to deal more explicitly with uncertainty and to incorporate that in the design, operation and control of urban drainage structures. (C) 1999 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalWater Science and Technology
    Volume39
    Issue number9
    Pages (from-to)1-8
    ISSN0273-1223
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1999
    Event4th International Conference on Developments in Urban Drainage Modelling - London, United Kingdom
    Duration: 21 Sep 199824 Sep 1998
    Conference number: 4

    Conference

    Conference4th International Conference on Developments in Urban Drainage Modelling
    Number4
    CountryUnited Kingdom
    CityLondon
    Period21/09/199824/09/1998

    Keywords

    • determinism
    • grey box models
    • modelling
    • stochasticity
    • urban drainage
    • uncertainty

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