Extreme gust wind estimation using mesoscale modeling

Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Andries Kruger

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    Abstract

    Currently, the existing estimation of the extreme gust wind, e.g. the 50-year winds of 3 s values, in the IEC standard, is based on a statistical model to convert the 1:50-year wind values from the 10 min resolution. This statistical model assumes a Gaussian process that satisfies the classical, surface turbulence characteristics.
    In this study, we follow a theory that is different from the local gust concept as described above. In this theory, the gust at the surface is non-local; it is produced by the deflection of air parcels flowing in the boundary layer and brought down to the surface through turbulent eddies. This process is modeled using the mesoscale Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) model.
    The gust at the surface is calculated as the largest winds over a layer where the averaged turbulence kinetic energy is greater than the averaged buoyancy force. The experiments have been done for Denmark and two areas in South Africa. For South Africa, the extreme gust atlases from South Africa were created from the output of the mesoscale modelling using Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis (CFSR) forcing for the period 1998 – 2010.
    The extensive measurements including turbulence from the Danish site Høvsøre help us to understand the limitation of the traditional method. Good agreement was found between the extreme gust atlases for South Africa and the existing map made from a limited number of measurements across the country.
    Our study supports the non-local gust theory. While the traditional method works for the surface layer, the approach used here is more suitable for higher elevations and for the application in wind energy, tall turbines.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of EWEA 2014
    Number of pages2
    PublisherEuropean Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
    Publication date2014
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    EventEuropean Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition 2014 - Fira de Barcelona Gran Via, Barcelona, Spain
    Duration: 10 Mar 201413 Mar 2014
    http://www.ewea.org/annual2014/

    Conference

    ConferenceEuropean Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition 2014
    LocationFira de Barcelona Gran Via
    Country/TerritorySpain
    CityBarcelona
    Period10/03/201413/03/2014
    Internet address

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