Exploring for the risk limits of oil transport in the Aegean Sea: The current records and perspectives of tanker safety

This paper presents an explorative analysis of tanker casualties in the Aegean Sea; thus, it is based on data derived from the records of a database specifically developed for this reason. This effort is a part of the Greek sponsored research project AEGEAN which aims to design and propose novel-"safe" tanker routes through the specific area and its main motivation is the continuous increase of oil quantities transferred through the Aegean Sea (e.g. due to the exploitation of the Caspian oil, or due to the forthcoming opening of new pipelines). Moreover, under the umbrella of safe oil movement across the Aegean Sea, a risk-driven approach is implemented in the outline of determining acceptable limits for local tanker safety: affordable (minimum) safety limits, since the proposed approach should not aggravate, in any case, the current situation/records and practices, from a marine safety point-of-view. This is achieved by using descriptive statistical techniques and selected risk models and by introducing corresponding risk indices that are able to support the adopted methodology and consequently provide sensible results and realistic conclusions. Hence, this paper may be regarded as a proactive-oriented effort to set acceptable safety levels for marine oil transport in the specific basin. It is noted that in the global maritime community there is no such thing as commonly accepted risk standards for any maritime transport procedure and activity; in this context, the key contribution of the paper lies in the initial study and the generic determination of current risk levels for marine (tanker) safety in the Aegean Sea.