Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

Commercial fisheries exert high mortalities on the stocks they exploit and the consequentselection pressure leads to fisheries induced evolution of growth rate, size at maturation, andreproductive output. Productivity and yields may decline as a result, but little is known aboutthe rate at which such changes are likely to occur. Fisheries-induced evolution of exploitedpopulations has recently become a subject of concern for policy makers, fisheries managersand the general public, with prominent calls for mitigating management action. We make ageneral evolutionary impact assessment of fisheries by calculating the expected rate of fisheries induced evolution and the consequent changes in yield. Rates of evolution areexpected to be on the order of 0.1--0.4 % per year. Resulting relative changes in fisheries yield are less than 0.5 % per year. These rates are much lower than published values basedon experiments and analysis of population time series and we explain why published valuesmay have overestimated the rates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgentthan reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on theirmarine ecosystems