Evolving trends in maritime accidents: A comparative analysis pre- and post-crisis

Maritime transport plays a crucial role in global trade, yet it remains highly vulnerable to accidents, which can have severe human, economic, and environmental consequences. While traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods have advanced maritime safety, they often fail to account for the impacts of major shock events, such as pandemics and geopolitical conflicts, on accident trends. This study addresses this gap by conducting a comparative analysis of maritime accidents before and after significant crises, with a particular focus on the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic disrupted global supply chains, altered shipping operations, and introduced new safety challenges, leading to shifts in accident patterns and risk factors. To assess these evolving trends, this study employs a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) approach, leveraging real-world accident data to uncover key differences in accident dynamics pre- and post-crisis. By analysing changes in risk factors, operational vulnerabilities, and safety measure effectiveness, the study provides a comprehensive evaluation of maritime safety in response to largescale disruptions. The findings offer valuable insights for maritime policymakers, industry stakeholders, and safety regulators, guiding the development of enhanced risk mitigation strategies, crisis preparedness frameworks, and adaptive safety protocols. This research contributes to a more resilient and data-driven approach to maritime risk management, ensuring the industry's ability to navigate future global challenges effectively.