Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house

J. P. Nielsen, T. S. Larsen, Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa, Lasse Engbo Christiansen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to βw = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62-1·72), βb = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17-1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0-1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13-19 days after introduction.
Original languageEnglish
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume145
Issue number13
Pages (from-to)2787-2796
ISSN0950-2688
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Keywords

  • African swine fever
  • Epidemiology
  • Maximum likelihood
  • Modelling
  • Transmission

Cite this

Nielsen, J. P. ; Larsen, T. S. ; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq ; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo. / Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house. In: Epidemiology and Infection. 2017 ; Vol. 145, No. 13. pp. 2787-2796.
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abstract = "The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to βw = 1·05 (95{\%} CI 0·62-1·72), βb = 0·46 (95{\%} CI 0·17-1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95{\%} CI 0-1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55{\%} equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13-19 days after introduction.",
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Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house. / Nielsen, J. P.; Larsen, T. S.; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo.

In: Epidemiology and Infection, Vol. 145, No. 13, 2017, p. 2787-2796.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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