Estimation of expected annual damage, EAD

Dan Rosbjerg*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

The sensitivity of expected annual damage, EAD, is analytically analysed by applying a log-linear relation between return periods and corresponding damages. It is found that the smallest return period for damage should be estimated as precisely as possible, that the percentage uncertainty in the damage estimate is transformed into the same percentage uncertainty in the EAD estimate, and that it is possible to extrapolate beyond the largest return period with corresponding damage assessment. The precision of the estimate of EAD is investigated in detail in the case of only few available data, and it is found that two different methods for numerical integration may result in strongly diverging results. By applying a piecewise log-linear damage function, it is shown that the log-linear model provides a trustworthy estimate of EAD, also in the case of few available data. Finally, the modifications needed in the special case of threshold exceedance data instead of annual maxima data are presented.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Number of pages5
PublisherCopernicus Publications
Publication date2024
Pages25-29
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event11th Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences - Montpellier, France
Duration: 29 May 20223 Jun 2022

Conference

Conference11th Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityMontpellier
Period29/05/202203/06/2022
SeriesIAHS Publication
Volume385
ISSN2199-8981

Keywords

  • UPH 21
  • SDG 13
  • Modelling
  • Pluvial flooding
  • Estimation techniques

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