TY - GEN
T1 - Estimation of expected annual damage, EAD
AU - Rosbjerg, Dan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Dan Rosbjerg.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - The sensitivity of expected annual damage, EAD, is analytically analysed by applying a log-linear relation between return periods and corresponding damages. It is found that the smallest return period for damage should be estimated as precisely as possible, that the percentage uncertainty in the damage estimate is transformed into the same percentage uncertainty in the EAD estimate, and that it is possible to extrapolate beyond the largest return period with corresponding damage assessment. The precision of the estimate of EAD is investigated in detail in the case of only few available data, and it is found that two different methods for numerical integration may result in strongly diverging results. By applying a piecewise log-linear damage function, it is shown that the log-linear model provides a trustworthy estimate of EAD, also in the case of few available data. Finally, the modifications needed in the special case of threshold exceedance data instead of annual maxima data are presented.
AB - The sensitivity of expected annual damage, EAD, is analytically analysed by applying a log-linear relation between return periods and corresponding damages. It is found that the smallest return period for damage should be estimated as precisely as possible, that the percentage uncertainty in the damage estimate is transformed into the same percentage uncertainty in the EAD estimate, and that it is possible to extrapolate beyond the largest return period with corresponding damage assessment. The precision of the estimate of EAD is investigated in detail in the case of only few available data, and it is found that two different methods for numerical integration may result in strongly diverging results. By applying a piecewise log-linear damage function, it is shown that the log-linear model provides a trustworthy estimate of EAD, also in the case of few available data. Finally, the modifications needed in the special case of threshold exceedance data instead of annual maxima data are presented.
KW - UPH 21
KW - SDG 13
KW - Modelling
KW - Pluvial flooding
KW - Estimation techniques
U2 - 10.5194/piahs-385-25-2024
DO - 10.5194/piahs-385-25-2024
M3 - Article in proceedings
AN - SCOPUS:85195576952
T3 - IAHS Publication
SP - 25
EP - 29
BT - Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
PB - Copernicus Publications
T2 - 11th Scientific Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Y2 - 29 May 2022 through 3 June 2022
ER -