Estimation of climate factors for future extreme rainfall: Comparing observations and RCM simulations

Ida Bülow Gregersen, H. Madsen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen

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Abstract

The application of climate factors has become more common in urban drainage design. The climate factor accounts for the expected increase in the magnitude of the extreme rainfall events during the technical lifetime of the drainage system. The present practice in Denmark is the application of climate factors of 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4 for 2-, 10- and 100-year events, respectively. These estimates are based on a comparison between the ‘control’ and ‘scenario’ period simulated by the regional climate model, HIRHAM4. The present paper presents new estimates of the climate factors on the basis of two new sources of data, focusing on a rainfall duration of 60 minutes. Temporal development of observed extreme rainfall is described by a parametric model and subsequently extrapolated, resulting in estimates of climate factors between 2.3 and 2.5. A recent transient model simulation by the regional climate model RACMO is divided into five time slices whereby their independent extreme rainfall characteristics
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage
Publication date2011
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event12th International Conference on Urban Drainage - Porto Alegre, Brazil
Duration: 11 Sep 201116 Sep 2011
Conference number: 12
http://www.acquacon.com.br/icud2011/en/

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Urban Drainage
Number12
CountryBrazil
CityPorto Alegre
Period11/09/201116/09/2011
Internet address

Keywords

  • Uncertainty
  • Non-stationarity
  • Extreme rainfall
  • Regional climate models
  • Climate factor

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