Estimating uncertainty of data limited stock assessments

Alexandros Kokkalis, Anne Maria Eikeset, Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen, Petur Steingrund, Ken Haste Andersen

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Many methods exist to assess the fishing status of data-limited stocks; however, little is known about the accuracy or the uncertainty of such
assessments. Here we evaluate a new size-based data-limited stock assessment method by applying it to well-assessed, data-rich fish stocks
treated as data-limited. Particular emphasis is put on providing uncertainty estimates of the data-limited assessment. We assess four cod stocks in the North-East Atlantic and compare our estimates of stock status (F/Fmsy) with the official assessments. The estimated stock status of all four cod stocks followed the established stock assessments remarkably well and the official assessments fell well within the uncertainty bounds. The estimation of spawning stock biomass followed the same trends as the official assessment, but not the same levels. We conclude that the data-limited assessment method can be used for stock assessment and that the uncertainty estimates are reliable. Further work is needed to quantify the spawning biomass of the stock
Original languageEnglish
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume74
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)69-77
ISSN1054-3139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Cite this

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title = "Estimating uncertainty of data limited stock assessments",
abstract = "Many methods exist to assess the fishing status of data-limited stocks; however, little is known about the accuracy or the uncertainty of suchassessments. Here we evaluate a new size-based data-limited stock assessment method by applying it to well-assessed, data-rich fish stockstreated as data-limited. Particular emphasis is put on providing uncertainty estimates of the data-limited assessment. We assess four cod stocks in the North-East Atlantic and compare our estimates of stock status (F/Fmsy) with the official assessments. The estimated stock status of all four cod stocks followed the established stock assessments remarkably well and the official assessments fell well within the uncertainty bounds. The estimation of spawning stock biomass followed the same trends as the official assessment, but not the same levels. We conclude that the data-limited assessment method can be used for stock assessment and that the uncertainty estimates are reliable. Further work is needed to quantify the spawning biomass of the stock",
author = "Alexandros Kokkalis and Eikeset, {Anne Maria} and Thygesen, {Uffe H{\o}gsbro} and Petur Steingrund and Andersen, {Ken Haste}",
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Estimating uncertainty of data limited stock assessments. / Kokkalis, Alexandros; Eikeset, Anne Maria; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Steingrund, Petur; Andersen, Ken Haste.

In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 74, No. 1, 2017, p. 69-77.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating uncertainty of data limited stock assessments

AU - Kokkalis, Alexandros

AU - Eikeset, Anne Maria

AU - Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

AU - Steingrund, Petur

AU - Andersen, Ken Haste

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Many methods exist to assess the fishing status of data-limited stocks; however, little is known about the accuracy or the uncertainty of suchassessments. Here we evaluate a new size-based data-limited stock assessment method by applying it to well-assessed, data-rich fish stockstreated as data-limited. Particular emphasis is put on providing uncertainty estimates of the data-limited assessment. We assess four cod stocks in the North-East Atlantic and compare our estimates of stock status (F/Fmsy) with the official assessments. The estimated stock status of all four cod stocks followed the established stock assessments remarkably well and the official assessments fell well within the uncertainty bounds. The estimation of spawning stock biomass followed the same trends as the official assessment, but not the same levels. We conclude that the data-limited assessment method can be used for stock assessment and that the uncertainty estimates are reliable. Further work is needed to quantify the spawning biomass of the stock

AB - Many methods exist to assess the fishing status of data-limited stocks; however, little is known about the accuracy or the uncertainty of suchassessments. Here we evaluate a new size-based data-limited stock assessment method by applying it to well-assessed, data-rich fish stockstreated as data-limited. Particular emphasis is put on providing uncertainty estimates of the data-limited assessment. We assess four cod stocks in the North-East Atlantic and compare our estimates of stock status (F/Fmsy) with the official assessments. The estimated stock status of all four cod stocks followed the established stock assessments remarkably well and the official assessments fell well within the uncertainty bounds. The estimation of spawning stock biomass followed the same trends as the official assessment, but not the same levels. We conclude that the data-limited assessment method can be used for stock assessment and that the uncertainty estimates are reliable. Further work is needed to quantify the spawning biomass of the stock

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DO - 10.1093/icesjms/fsw145

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