Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout

Xochitl Cormon, Alexander Kempf, Youen Vermard, Morten Vinther, Paul Marchal

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Abstract

During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator-prey interactions, and indirect impactsmay materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe F-MSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value.
Original languageEnglish
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume73
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)1370-1381
ISSN1054-3139
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Keywords

  • POLLACHIUS-VIRENS
  • MERLUCCIUS-MERLUCCIUS
  • MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
  • GADOID FISH
  • SPATIAL INTERACTIONS
  • REFERENCE POINTS
  • NORWEGIAN DEEP
  • FOOD-WEB
  • FISHERIES
  • ATLANTIC
  • hake
  • interspecific competition
  • maximum sustainable yield
  • multispecies stock assessment
  • Norway pout
  • predator-prey interactions
  • saithe
  • simple foodweb
  • SMS

Cite this

Cormon, Xochitl ; Kempf, Alexander ; Vermard, Youen ; Vinther, Morten ; Marchal, Paul. / Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout. In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2016 ; Vol. 73, No. 5. pp. 1370-1381.
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abstract = "During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator-prey interactions, and indirect impactsmay materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe F-MSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value.",
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Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout. / Cormon, Xochitl; Kempf, Alexander; Vermard, Youen; Vinther, Morten; Marchal, Paul.

In: ICES Journal of Marine Science, Vol. 73, No. 5, 2016, p. 1370-1381.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout

AU - Cormon, Xochitl

AU - Kempf, Alexander

AU - Vermard, Youen

AU - Vinther, Morten

AU - Marchal, Paul

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator-prey interactions, and indirect impactsmay materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe F-MSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value.

AB - During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator-prey interactions, and indirect impactsmay materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe F-MSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value.

KW - POLLACHIUS-VIRENS

KW - MERLUCCIUS-MERLUCCIUS

KW - MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

KW - GADOID FISH

KW - SPATIAL INTERACTIONS

KW - REFERENCE POINTS

KW - NORWEGIAN DEEP

KW - FOOD-WEB

KW - FISHERIES

KW - ATLANTIC

KW - hake

KW - interspecific competition

KW - maximum sustainable yield

KW - multispecies stock assessment

KW - Norway pout

KW - predator-prey interactions

KW - saithe

KW - simple foodweb

KW - SMS

U2 - 10.1093/icesjms/fsw050

DO - 10.1093/icesjms/fsw050

M3 - Journal article

VL - 73

SP - 1370

EP - 1381

JO - I C E S Journal of Marine Science

JF - I C E S Journal of Marine Science

SN - 1054-3139

IS - 5

ER -