Electric vehicles and renewable energy in the transport sector - energy system consequences. Main focus: Battery electric vehicles and hydrogen based fuel cell vehicles

The aim of the project is to analyse energy, environmental, and electricity market aspects of integrating electric vehicles in the future Danish energy system. Consequences of largescale utilisation of electric vehicles are analysed. Furthermore, the aim is to illustrate the potential synergistic interplay between the utilisation of electric vehicles and large-scale utilisation of fluctuating renewable energy resources, such as wind power. Economic aspects for electric vehicles interacting with a liberalised electricity market are analysed. The project
focuses on battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles based on hydrogen. Large-scale integration of electric, hydrogen and hybrid vehicles in the transport sector may in the future significantly reduce the emission of pollutants, and improve air quality in local and urban areas. Furthermore, through such vehicles, developments in the power supply sector may have direct implications for the road transport emissions. Options in the power sector, as to reduce CO₂-emissions in particular, may become options for the transportation sector as well. Based on assumptions on the future technical development for battery electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles on hydrogen, and for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, scenarios are set up to reflect expected options for the long-term development of the road transport fleet. Focus is put on the Danish fleet of passenger cars and delivery vans. The scenario analysis includes assumptions on market potential developments and market penetration for the alternative vehicles. Vehicle replacement rates in the Danish transport fleet and
the size of fleet development are based on data from The Danish Road Directorate. The electricity supply system development assumed is based on the Danish energy plan, Energy 21, The Plan scenario. The time horizon of the analysis is year 2030. Results from the scenario analysis include the time scales involved for the potential transition towards electricity based vehicles, the fleet composition development, the associated developments in transport fuel consumption and fuel substitution, and the CO₂-emission reduction achievable in the overall transport and power supply system. Detailed model simulations, on an hourly basis, have furthermore been carried out for year 2005 that address electricity purchase options for electric vehicles in the context of a liberalised electricity market. The baseline electricity market considered comprises a spot market and a balance market. The structure chosen for the baseline spot market for year 2005 is close to the structure of the Nord Pool electricity market, and the structure of the balance or regulatory market is close to the Norwegian model.