Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

Martin Lindegren, Christian Möllmann, Anders Nielsen, Keith Brander, Brian MacKenzie, Niels Chr. Stenseth

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.
Original languageEnglish
JournalRoyal Society of London. Proceedings. Biological Sciences
Volume277
Issue number1691
Pages (from-to)2121-2130
ISSN0962-8452
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Cite this

@article{1f1d7d7cbcba4a028ee71ef74afc063f,
title = "Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod",
abstract = "Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.",
author = "Martin Lindegren and Christian M{\"o}llmann and Anders Nielsen and Keith Brander and Brian MacKenzie and Stenseth, {Niels Chr.}",
year = "2010",
doi = "10.1098/rspb.2010.0353",
language = "English",
volume = "277",
pages = "2121--2130",
journal = "Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",
issn = "0962-8452",
publisher = "The Royal Society Publishing",
number = "1691",

}

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod. / Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Brander, Keith; MacKenzie, Brian; Stenseth, Niels Chr.

In: Royal Society of London. Proceedings. Biological Sciences, Vol. 277, No. 1691, 2010, p. 2121-2130.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

AU - Lindegren, Martin

AU - Möllmann, Christian

AU - Nielsen, Anders

AU - Brander, Keith

AU - MacKenzie, Brian

AU - Stenseth, Niels Chr.

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.

AB - Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.

U2 - 10.1098/rspb.2010.0353

DO - 10.1098/rspb.2010.0353

M3 - Journal article

VL - 277

SP - 2121

EP - 2130

JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

SN - 0962-8452

IS - 1691

ER -