Dynamism in complex engineering: explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking

Melanie Kreye, Philip Cash, Pedro Parraguez Ruiz, Anja Maier*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The development of uncertainty over the progression of a project (i.e. dynamism) is a central issue in engineering management; however, it has been little explored. This paper answers the question of how uncertainty develops over the course of complex engineering. We present a case of a renewable energy power plant where we performed content analysis on over 54,000 e-mails. The findings reveal a new mechanism affecting uncertainty development. We call this mechanism ‘uncertainty masking’ and define it as: the process through which a ‘root uncertainty’ is misidentified by the project team, resulting in the creation and management of a ‘symptomatic uncertainty’. Root and symptomatic uncertainty types compound over time and hamper uncertainty resolution, leading to growth in level of uncertainty during later project stages. We describe the impact of uncertainty masking on the u-shape level of uncertainty in the case project. This research contributes to the engineering-management literature by explaining observations of uncertainty growth, which existing theory is unable to explain. We thus significantly advance uncertainty theory in engineering management.
Original languageEnglish
JournalI E E E Transactions on Engineering Management
ISSN0018-9391
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2020

Cite this

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title = "Dynamism in complex engineering: explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking",
abstract = "The development of uncertainty over the progression of a project (i.e. dynamism) is a central issue in engineering management; however, it has been little explored. This paper answers the question of how uncertainty develops over the course of complex engineering. We present a case of a renewable energy power plant where we performed content analysis on over 54,000 e-mails. The findings reveal a new mechanism affecting uncertainty development. We call this mechanism ‘uncertainty masking’ and define it as: the process through which a ‘root uncertainty’ is misidentified by the project team, resulting in the creation and management of a ‘symptomatic uncertainty’. Root and symptomatic uncertainty types compound over time and hamper uncertainty resolution, leading to growth in level of uncertainty during later project stages. We describe the impact of uncertainty masking on the u-shape level of uncertainty in the case project. This research contributes to the engineering-management literature by explaining observations of uncertainty growth, which existing theory is unable to explain. We thus significantly advance uncertainty theory in engineering management.",
author = "Melanie Kreye and Philip Cash and {Parraguez Ruiz}, Pedro and Anja Maier",
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Dynamism in complex engineering: explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking. / Kreye, Melanie; Cash, Philip; Parraguez Ruiz, Pedro; Maier, Anja.

In: I E E E Transactions on Engineering Management, 2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Dynamism in complex engineering: explaining uncertainty growth through uncertainty masking

AU - Kreye, Melanie

AU - Cash, Philip

AU - Parraguez Ruiz, Pedro

AU - Maier, Anja

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - The development of uncertainty over the progression of a project (i.e. dynamism) is a central issue in engineering management; however, it has been little explored. This paper answers the question of how uncertainty develops over the course of complex engineering. We present a case of a renewable energy power plant where we performed content analysis on over 54,000 e-mails. The findings reveal a new mechanism affecting uncertainty development. We call this mechanism ‘uncertainty masking’ and define it as: the process through which a ‘root uncertainty’ is misidentified by the project team, resulting in the creation and management of a ‘symptomatic uncertainty’. Root and symptomatic uncertainty types compound over time and hamper uncertainty resolution, leading to growth in level of uncertainty during later project stages. We describe the impact of uncertainty masking on the u-shape level of uncertainty in the case project. This research contributes to the engineering-management literature by explaining observations of uncertainty growth, which existing theory is unable to explain. We thus significantly advance uncertainty theory in engineering management.

AB - The development of uncertainty over the progression of a project (i.e. dynamism) is a central issue in engineering management; however, it has been little explored. This paper answers the question of how uncertainty develops over the course of complex engineering. We present a case of a renewable energy power plant where we performed content analysis on over 54,000 e-mails. The findings reveal a new mechanism affecting uncertainty development. We call this mechanism ‘uncertainty masking’ and define it as: the process through which a ‘root uncertainty’ is misidentified by the project team, resulting in the creation and management of a ‘symptomatic uncertainty’. Root and symptomatic uncertainty types compound over time and hamper uncertainty resolution, leading to growth in level of uncertainty during later project stages. We describe the impact of uncertainty masking on the u-shape level of uncertainty in the case project. This research contributes to the engineering-management literature by explaining observations of uncertainty growth, which existing theory is unable to explain. We thus significantly advance uncertainty theory in engineering management.

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DO - 10.1109/TEM.2019.2937570

M3 - Journal article

JO - I E E E Transactions on Engineering Management

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SN - 0018-9391

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