TY - JOUR
T1 - Duration of transients in outbreaks: when can infectiousness be estimated?
AU - Mielke, Adam
AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population.
AB - We investigate sub-leading orders of the classic SEIR-model using contact matrices from modeling of the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID-19 in Denmark. The goal of this is to illustrate when the growth rate, and by extension the infection transmission potential (basic or initial reproduction number), can be estimated in a new outbreak, e.g. after introduction of a new variant of a virus. In particular, we look at the time scale on which this happens in a realistic outbreak to guide future data collection. We find that as long as susceptible depletion is a minor effect, the transients are gone within around 3 weeks corresponding to about 4-5 times the incubation time. We also argue that this result generalizes to other airborne diseases in a fully mixed population.
U2 - 10.1007/s00285-024-02175-9
DO - 10.1007/s00285-024-02175-9
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 39702811
SN - 0303-6812
VL - 90
JO - Journal of Mathematical Biology
JF - Journal of Mathematical Biology
M1 - 11
ER -