Drivers for Livestock-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Aureus Spread Among Danish Pig Herds - A Simulation Study

Jana Schulz*, Anette Boklund, Nils Toft, Tariq Halasa

*Corresponding author for this work

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    Abstract

    To gain insight into the rapid increase in the number of livestock-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA)-positive herds in Denmark, we developed an individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model. We aimed to assess whether transmission of LA-MRSA via pig movements could explain the observed increase in the number of positive herds in Denmark, and to evaluate the effect of other between-herd transmission mechanisms. Pig movements alone were not sufficient to mimic the observed increase in LA-MRSA-positive herds in Denmark in any of the modelled scenarios. The model identified three factors that played important roles in the between-herd spread of LA-MRSA: (1) the within-herd dynamics, (2) the frequency and effectiveness of indirect transmissions, and (3) unexplainable introduction of LA-MRSA to swine herds. These factors can act as starting points for the development of LA-MRSA control programs in pig herds in order to limit the risk of its transmission to humans.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number16962
    JournalScientific Reports
    Volume8
    Number of pages11
    ISSN2045-2322
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018

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