Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD)

Matti Koivisto*, Polyneikis Kanellas, Alberto Troccoli, Giovanni Aldrigo, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Bjarke Tobias Olsen, Juan Pablo Murcia Leon, Daniela Angeloni, Marco Borga, Stefano Campostrini, Stefano Cordeddu, Letizia Lusito, Yves Marie Saint-Drenan, Elena Restivo, Mattia Zaramella

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

An overview of the creation of the new version of PECD is presented. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to model historical weather patterns and three climate projections are used to analyse expected changes due to climate change. Global Wind Atlas wind speed data are used to bias correct both the historical period and the projections. For wind power, climate change is expected to have limited impact on average capacity factors on pan-European level. However, there is uncertainty between the climate models. Deploying modern turbines at higher hub heights can increase capacity factors compared to current installations more than expected climate change impact. Validation to measured data shows generally good results, and the historical period and the climate projections appear generally coherent. A good agreement between the historical period and the studied climate projection is found also for solar PV, and validation to measured data shows generally good fit.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
Number of pages9
Publication date2023
Publication statusPublished - 2023
Event22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
- Copenhagen, Denmark
Duration: 26 Sept 202328 Sept 2023

Workshop

Workshop22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
Country/TerritoryDenmark
CityCopenhagen
Period26/09/202328/09/2023

Bibliographical note

This paper was presented at the 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop and published in the workshop’s proceedings

Keywords

  • Pan-european
  • Climate changw
  • Database
  • Weather
  • Wind
  • Solar
  • Variability
  • Simulation

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