Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD)

Matti Koivisto; Polyneikis Kanellas; Alberto Troccoli; Giovanni Aldrigo; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Bjarke Tobias Olsen; Juan Pablo Murcia Leon; Daniela Angeloni; Marco Borga; Stefano Campostrini; Stefano Cordeddu; Letizia Lusito; Yves Marie Saint-Drenan; Elena Restivo; Mattia Zaramella

doi:10.1049/icp.2023.2719

Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD)

Matti Koivisto^*, Polyneikis Kanellas, Alberto Troccoli, Giovanni Aldrigo, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Bjarke Tobias Olsen, Juan Pablo Murcia Leon, Daniela Angeloni, Marco Borga, Stefano Campostrini, Stefano Cordeddu, Letizia Lusito, Yves Marie Saint-Drenan, Elena Restivo, Mattia Zaramella

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

An overview of the creation of the new version of PECD is presented. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to model historical weather patterns and three climate projections are used to analyse expected changes due to climate change. Global Wind Atlas wind speed data are used to bias correct both the historical period and the projections. For wind power, climate change is expected to have limited impact on average capacity factors on pan-European level. However, there is uncertainty between the climate models. Deploying modern turbines at higher hub heights can increase capacity factors compared to current installations more than expected climate change impact. Validation to measured data shows generally good results, and the historical period and the climate projections appear generally coherent. A good agreement between the historical period and the studied climate projection is found also for solar PV, and validation to measured data shows generally good fit.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
Number of pages	9
Publisher	Institution of Engineering and Technology
Publication date	2023
ISBN (Electronic)	978-1-83953-966-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1049/icp.2023.2719
Publication status	Published - 2023
Event	22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop - Copenhagen, Denmark Duration: 26 Sept 2023 → 28 Sept 2023

Workshop

Workshop	22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
Country/Territory	Denmark
City	Copenhagen
Period	26/09/2023 → 28/09/2023

Bibliographical note

This paper was presented at the 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop and published in the workshop’s proceedings

Keywords

Pan-european
Climate changw
Database
Weather
Wind
Solar
Variability
Simulation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1049/icp.2023.2719

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Koivisto, M., Kanellas, P., Troccoli, A., Aldrigo, G., Silva, R. A. E., Olsen, B. T., Murcia Leon, J. P., Angeloni, D., Borga, M., Campostrini, S., Cordeddu, S., Lusito, L., Saint-Drenan, Y. M., Restivo, E., & Zaramella, M. (2023). Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD). In Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop Institution of Engineering and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1049/icp.2023.2719

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title = "Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD)",

abstract = "An overview of the creation of the new version of PECD is presented. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to model historical weather patterns and three climate projections are used to analyse expected changes due to climate change. Global Wind Atlas wind speed data are used to bias correct both the historical period and the projections. For wind power, climate change is expected to have limited impact on average capacity factors on pan-European level. However, there is uncertainty between the climate models. Deploying modern turbines at higher hub heights can increase capacity factors compared to current installations more than expected climate change impact. Validation to measured data shows generally good results, and the historical period and the climate projections appear generally coherent. A good agreement between the historical period and the studied climate projection is found also for solar PV, and validation to measured data shows generally good fit.",

keywords = "Pan-european, Climate changw, Database, Weather, Wind, Solar, Variability, Simulation",

author = "Matti Koivisto and Polyneikis Kanellas and Alberto Troccoli and Giovanni Aldrigo and Silva, {Rodrigo Amaro e} and Olsen, {Bjarke Tobias} and {Murcia Leon}, {Juan Pablo} and Daniela Angeloni and Marco Borga and Stefano Campostrini and Stefano Cordeddu and Letizia Lusito and Saint-Drenan, {Yves Marie} and Elena Restivo and Mattia Zaramella",

note = "This paper was presented at the 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop and published in the workshop{\textquoteright}s proceedings; 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop<br/> ; Conference date: 26-09-2023 Through 28-09-2023",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.1049/icp.2023.2719",

language = "English",

booktitle = "Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop",

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Koivisto, M , Kanellas, P, Troccoli, A, Aldrigo, G, Silva, RAE, Olsen, BT, Murcia Leon, JP, Angeloni, D, Borga, M, Campostrini, S, Cordeddu, S, Lusito, L, Saint-Drenan, YM, Restivo, E & Zaramella, M 2023, Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD). in Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop. Institution of Engineering and Technology, 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop
, Copenhagen, Denmark, 26/09/2023. https://doi.org/10.1049/icp.2023.2719

Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD). / Koivisto, Matti ; Kanellas, Polyneikis; Troccoli, Alberto et al.
Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop. Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2023.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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AU - Kanellas, Polyneikis

AU - Troccoli, Alberto

AU - Aldrigo, Giovanni

AU - Silva, Rodrigo Amaro e

AU - Olsen, Bjarke Tobias

AU - Murcia Leon, Juan Pablo

AU - Angeloni, Daniela

AU - Borga, Marco

AU - Campostrini, Stefano

AU - Cordeddu, Stefano

AU - Lusito, Letizia

AU - Saint-Drenan, Yves Marie

AU - Restivo, Elena

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AB - An overview of the creation of the new version of PECD is presented. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to model historical weather patterns and three climate projections are used to analyse expected changes due to climate change. Global Wind Atlas wind speed data are used to bias correct both the historical period and the projections. For wind power, climate change is expected to have limited impact on average capacity factors on pan-European level. However, there is uncertainty between the climate models. Deploying modern turbines at higher hub heights can increase capacity factors compared to current installations more than expected climate change impact. Validation to measured data shows generally good results, and the historical period and the climate projections appear generally coherent. A good agreement between the historical period and the studied climate projection is found also for solar PV, and validation to measured data shows generally good fit.

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KW - Climate changw

KW - Database

KW - Weather

KW - Wind

KW - Solar

KW - Variability

KW - Simulation

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DO - 10.1049/icp.2023.2719

M3 - Article in proceedings

BT - Proceedings of 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop

PB - Institution of Engineering and Technology

T2 - 22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop<br/>

Y2 - 26 September 2023 through 28 September 2023

ER -

Developing Support Service to ENTSO-E: Including the impacts of climate change in the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD)

Abstract

Workshop

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

OpenUrl availability

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Cite this