Detecting, categorizing and forecasting large romps in wind farm power output using meteorological observations and WPPT

N. Cutler, M. Kay, K. Jacka, Torben Skov Nielsen

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) has been installed in Australia for the first time, to forecast the power output from the 65MW Roaring 40s Renewable Energy P/L Woolnorth Bluff Point wind form. This article analyses the general performance of WPPT as well as its performance during large romps (swings) in power output. In addition to this, detected large ramps are studied in detail and categorized. WPPT combines wind speed and direction forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology regional numerical weather prediction model, MesoLAPS, with real-time wind power observations to make hourly forecasts of the wind farm power output. The general performances of MesoLAPS and WPPTore evaluated over I year using the root mean square error (RMSE). The errors are significantly lower than for basic benchmark forecasts but higher than for many other WPPT installations, where the site conditions are not as complicated as Woolnorth Bluff Point. Large ramps are considered critical events for a wind power forecast for energy trading as well as managing power system security. A methodology is developed to detect large ramp events in the wind farm power data. Forty-one large ramp events are detected over I year and these are categorized according to their predictability by MesoLAPS, the mechanical behaviour of the wind turbine, the power change observed on the grid and the source weather event. During these events, MesoLAPS and WPPT are found to give an RMSE only roughly equivalent to just predicting the mean (climatology forecast).
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalWind Energy
    Volume10
    Issue number5
    Pages (from-to)453-470
    ISSN1095-4244
    Publication statusPublished - 2007

    Keywords

    • power system security
    • large ramp
    • short-term prediction
    • wind power forecast
    • energy trading
    • swing
    • meteorology
    • weather event

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