simulation re-initialization strategies, and 2 methods for initializing the land surface state. The results of the simulations are validated against data from 10 meteorological masts in South Africa, part of the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) project, where a long-term set of high-quality observations exist. The results of the ensemble simulations are encouraging, but further analysis is needed to quantify their utility. A key disadvantage of the ensemble simulation strategy employed
herein, is that some members may tend to be highly similar to others, leading to overconfidence in the mean and spread of the simulations. Such overconfidence yields misleading estimates of the accuracy, value, and uncertainty of the wind resource.
|Publisher||NEWA - New European Wind Atlas|
|Number of pages||30|
|Publication status||Published - 2017|