Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions

Kaare Græsbøll; Lasse Engbo Christiansen; Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen; Carsten Thure Kirkeby

doi:10.1515/em-2020-0042

Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions

Kaare Græsbøll^*, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen, Carsten Thure Kirkeby

^*Corresponding author for this work

University of Copenhagen

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.

Original language	English
Article number	20200042
Journal	Epidemiologic Methods
Volume	10
Issue number	s1
Number of pages	4
ISSN	2194-9263
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1515/em-2020-0042
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2021

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© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH. All rights reserved.

Keywords

COVID-19
Pandemic
Simulation model
Travel restrictions
Within-country spread

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AU - Kirkeby, Carsten Thure

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AB - Objectives: Travel restrictions is an often-used tool for governments to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Methods: We here used a simple simulation model to investigate the potential effects of travel restrictions within a country. Results: We found that travel restrictions can delay the peak of the epidemic considerably, but do not affect the spread within the country. We also investigated the effect of implementing travel restrictions early or later in the epidemic, and found that fast implementation is crucial for delaying the epidemic. Conclusions: Fast implementation of travel restrictions is crucial for delaying the peak of a subsequent outbreak of COVID-19 within a country.

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Delaying the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic with travel restrictions

Abstract

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Keywords

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