Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation

Fabrizio Cerreto; Steven Harrod; Otto Anker Nielsen

doi:10.1201/9781315281896-112

Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation

Fabrizio Cerreto, Steven Harrod, Otto Anker Nielsen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

Abstract

This paper formulates a delay propagation model that estimates total railway line delay as a polynomial function of a single primary delay. The estimate is derived from a finite series of delays over a horizon that spans two dimensions: the length of the railway line and the number of trains in the service plan. The paper shows that the total delay estimate is a cubic relation for small primary delays.
A probabilistic approach is presented to combine the total delay functions of primary delays given to different trains. The final estimate is the total delay on railway lines, after a random incident has occurred. The model can be integrated in railway timetable analysis to reduce the number of necessary simulations,
and can be used when the computation speed is an issue, such as on-line rescheduling algorithms. The model is demonstrated with an analysis of a Danish suburban railway.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Transport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017
Editors	Gianluca Dell'Acqua, Fred Wegman
Publisher	CRC Press
Publication date	2017
Pages	867-874
ISBN (Print)	978-1-138-03009-1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315281896-112
Publication status	Published - 2017
Event	AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems - Rome, Italy Duration: 10 Apr 2017 → 12 Apr 2017

Conference

Conference	AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Rome
Period	10/04/2017 → 12/04/2017

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Cerreto, F., Harrod, S., & Nielsen, O. A. (2017). Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation. In G. Dell'Acqua, & F. Wegman (Eds.), Transport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017 (pp. 867-874). CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315281896-112

Cerreto, Fabrizio ; Harrod, Steven ; Nielsen, Otto Anker. / Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation. Transport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017. editor / Gianluca Dell'Acqua ; Fred Wegman. CRC Press, 2017. pp. 867-874

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abstract = "This paper formulates a delay propagation model that estimates total railway line delay as a polynomial function of a single primary delay. The estimate is derived from a finite series of delays over a horizon that spans two dimensions: the length of the railway line and the number of trains in the service plan. The paper shows that the total delay estimate is a cubic relation for small primary delays.A probabilistic approach is presented to combine the total delay functions of primary delays given to different trains. The final estimate is the total delay on railway lines, after a random incident has occurred. The model can be integrated in railway timetable analysis to reduce the number of necessary simulations,and can be used when the computation speed is an issue, such as on-line rescheduling algorithms. The model is demonstrated with an analysis of a Danish suburban railway.",

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Cerreto, F, Harrod, S & Nielsen, OA 2017, Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation. in G Dell'Acqua & F Wegman (eds), Transport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017. CRC Press, pp. 867-874, AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems , Rome, Italy, 10/04/2017. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315281896-112

Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation. / Cerreto, Fabrizio; Harrod, Steven ; Nielsen, Otto Anker.
Transport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017. ed. / Gianluca Dell'Acqua; Fred Wegman. CRC Press, 2017. p. 867-874.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation

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