Delay estimation on a railway-line with smart use of micro-simulation

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    Abstract

    This paper formulates a delay propagation model that estimates total railway line delay as a polynomial function of a single primary delay. The estimate is derived from a finite series of delays over a horizon that spans two dimensions: the length of the railway line and the number of trains in the service plan. The paper shows that the total delay estimate is a cubic relation for small primary delays.
    A probabilistic approach is presented to combine the total delay functions of primary delays given to different trains. The final estimate is the total delay on railway lines, after a random incident has occurred. The model can be integrated in railway timetable analysis to reduce the number of necessary simulations,
    and can be used when the computation speed is an issue, such as on-line rescheduling algorithms. The model is demonstrated with an analysis of a Danish suburban railway.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationTransport Infrastructure and Systems. Proceedings of the AIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems (Tis 2017), Rome, Italy, 10-12 April 2017
    EditorsGianluca Dell'Acqua, Fred Wegman
    PublisherCRC Press
    Publication date2017
    Pages867-874
    ISBN (Print)978-1-138-03009-1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2017
    EventAIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems - Rome, Italy
    Duration: 10 Apr 201712 Apr 2017

    Conference

    ConferenceAIIT International Congress on Transport Infrastructure and Systems
    CountryItaly
    CityRome
    Period10/04/201712/04/2017

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