TY - JOUR
T1 - Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming
T2 - Climate Sensitivity Rise With Warming
AU - Shaffer, Gary
AU - Huber, Matthew
AU - Rondanelli, Roberto
AU - Pedersen, Jens Olaf Pepke
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.
AB - Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.
U2 - 10.1002/2016GL069243
DO - 10.1002/2016GL069243
M3 - Journal article
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 43
SP - 6538
EP - 6545
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 12
ER -