Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change

Ida Bülow Gregersen, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. The most important barrier for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: The precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all yield information that improve decision making and thus enables more robust decisions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage
Publication date2011
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event12th International Conference on Urban Drainage - Porto Alegre, Brazil
Duration: 11 Sep 201116 Sep 2011
Conference number: 12
http://www.acquacon.com.br/icud2011/en/

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Urban Drainage
Number12
CountryBrazil
CityPorto Alegre
Period11/09/201116/09/2011
Internet address

Keywords

  • Bayesian decision support
  • Uncertainty
  • Rainfall
  • Climate change
  • The precautionary principle
  • Minimax strategy

Cite this

Gregersen, I. B., & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. (2011). Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change. In Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage
Gregersen, Ida Bülow ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten. / Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage. 2011.
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Gregersen, IB & Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K 2011, Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change. in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage. 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Porto Alegre, Brazil, 11/09/2011.

Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change. / Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten.

Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage. 2011.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

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Gregersen IB, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K. Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under influence of climate change. In Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Urban Drainage. 2011