Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels?

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    Abstract

    Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationThe Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change
    PublisherSpringer
    Publication date2018
    Pages3-22
    ISBN (Print)978-3-319-63611-5
    ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-63612-2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018
    SeriesGreen Energy and Technology

    Keywords

    • Energy system modelling
    • Transport
    • Electric vehicles
    • Biofuels
    • STREAM model

    Cite this

    Skytte, K., & Bramstoft Pedersen, R. (2018). Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels? In The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change (pp. 3-22). Springer. Green Energy and Technology https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63612-2_1
    Skytte, Klaus ; Bramstoft Pedersen, Rasmus. / Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels?. The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change. Springer, 2018. pp. 3-22 (Green Energy and Technology).
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    abstract = "Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3{\%} compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4{\%} higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.",
    keywords = "Energy system modelling, Transport, Electric vehicles, Biofuels, STREAM model",
    author = "Klaus Skytte and {Bramstoft Pedersen}, Rasmus",
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    Skytte, K & Bramstoft Pedersen, R 2018, Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels? in The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change. Springer, Green Energy and Technology, pp. 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63612-2_1

    Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels? / Skytte, Klaus; Bramstoft Pedersen, Rasmus.

    The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change. Springer, 2018. p. 3-22 (Green Energy and Technology).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingBook chapterResearchpeer-review

    TY - CHAP

    T1 - Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels?

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    N2 - Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.

    AB - Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.

    KW - Energy system modelling

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    EP - 22

    BT - The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change

    PB - Springer

    ER -

    Skytte K, Bramstoft Pedersen R. Decarbonising the Finnish Transport Sector by 2050: Electricity or Biofuels? In The Nexus: Energy, Environment and Climate Change. Springer. 2018. p. 3-22. (Green Energy and Technology). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-63612-2_1