Data-driven two-stage robust optimization dispatching model and benefit allocation strategy for a novel virtual power plant considering carbon-green certificate equivalence conversion mechanism

Aiming at a large number of decentralized resources such as rural biomass, rooftop photovoltaic, and decentralized wind power, a novel rural virtual power plant (VPP) has been conceptualized. The VPP is integrated by biomass waste conversion system (BWC), carbon to energy (C2P), demand response aggregator (DRA), and distributed renewable energy (DRE), namely, BDCD-VPP. Then, this paper proposes a data-driven two-stage robust optimization dispatching model for BDCD-VPP considering carbon-green certificates equivalent conversion mechanism. This model aims to address the uncertainty of wind power plants (WPP) and photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Strong duality theorem (SDT) and C&CG algorithm are applied to construct this model. Thirdly, the Aumann-Shapley method (A-S) was enhanced by incorporating risk factor, cost factor, and carbon reduction factor. This refinement results in the development of a synergistic scheduling revenue allocation method for electricity‑carbon-green certificates. Finally, the Lankao rural energy revolution pilot program in China is selected as the case study, the results showed: (1) The BDCD-VPP aggregates distributed energy sources such as the rural WPP and the PV to realize electricity‑carbon-electricity cycle effect. The BDCD-VPP generates a green certificate revenue of 47.17¥/MWh and exhibited carbon emissions of 0.37 t/MWh. The proposed Carbon-Green Certificates Equivalent Conversion Mechanism increases BDCD-VPP benefit ratio by 3.52%. (2) The proposed two-stage robust optimization dispatching model enhances the ability of BDCD-VPP to adapt to uncertainty. Compared to the day-ahead stage, biomass power generation (BPG) and waste power generation (WPG) increase upward peaking power by 24.05% and 9.99% in intra-day stage. Flue gas treatment system (FG-TS), gas-power plant carbon capture (GPPCC) and power to gas (P2G) increase downward peaking power by 65.15%, 70.99% and 25.94%. (3) Utilizing the proposed benefit allocation methodology, BPG and WPG need to concede 38.25¥/MWh and 65.02¥/MWh for carbon emissions associated with electricity. WPP and PV need to concede 64.25¥/MWh and 33.71¥/MWh for power generation uncertainty. GPPCC, P2G, DRA, and small hydropower station (SHS) obtain revenues of 24.48 ¥/MWh, 55.07 ¥/MWh, 70.38 ¥/MWh, and 51.30 ¥/MWh. Compared to the A-S, the proposed benefit allocation methodology exhibits 6.92% improvement in satisfaction. Overall, the proposed data-driven two-stage robust optimization dispatching model and benefit allocation strategy facilitates the optimal aggregation and utilization of rural distributed energy resources, considering the interests of various stakeholders. This is conducive to achieving a clean and low-carbon transformation of the overall energy structure.