Data-Driven Estimation of Time-Varying Stochastic Effects on Building Heat Consumption Related to Human Interactions

Within the field of statistical modelling and data-driven characterisation of buildings’ energy performance, the focus is typically on parameter estimation of the building envelope and the energy systems. Less focus has been put on the stochastic human effect on energy consumption. We propose a new method for estimating the thermal building properties while, in parallel, estimating time-varying effects caused by the humans’ interactions with the building. We do that by combining a smooth, non-linear formulation of the energy signature method known from the literature with a hidden state formulated as a random walk to describe the human interactions with the building. The method is demonstrated on data obtained from autumn 2019 to late spring 2021 from a 900 m² newly built school building located south of Oslo, Norway. The demonstration case has shown that the model accuracy increases and the model bias decrease when cross-validated. The estimated hidden state has also been shown to resemble the estimated combined mechanical and natural ventilation pattern controlled by the building users and operational staff. These human interactions have increased the total heat loss expressed in kilowatts per kelvin by around 50% over the course of one year from before the COVID-19 pandemic to after its outbreak.