Cross-Sectoral Climate Change Risk Hotspots in Europe: Insights from CROSSEU Case Studies

This work investigates how the damages in cross-sectoral climate change risk hotspots can be assessed drawing on methodologies developed and applied to eight case studies conducted within the EU CROSSEU project. Hotspot analysis represents several key challenges in the assessment of the impacts of climate hazards and the focus here is on extreme climate events rather than on the impacts of gradual climate change. Hotspots are defined as areas where climate events are likely to generate high potential damages. The hotspot identification methodology provides a framework for identification of context specific vulnerabilities due to a combination of factors, including the magnitude of extreme climate events (physical aspects), the presence of critical infrastructure and vulnerable populations (socio-economic aspects), and the sector specific vulnerabilities as well as interconnectedness of different sectors (cross-sectoral aspects). The identification of hotspots is based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, including climate projections, socio-economic data, and stakeholder consultations.

The hotspot methodological framework is applied to a range of case study sectors and geographical settings. The case studies cover heat waves in Czech Republic and United Kingdom; drought in regions of Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania; floods in Denmark, Germany, and Italy; and snow avalanches in the Alps and Carpathian Mountains. While three other case studies addressed climate change impacts and spillover effects in the Lower Danube region and across Europe- particularly on renewable energy infrastructure and agriculture.

In terms of physical vulnerabilities, the case studies demonstrate that Prague and Southern Moravia in the Czech Republic, and London in the UK, are hotspots for heat-related mortality and morbidity, and specific social and structural vulnerabilities in these areas are related to high population densities, aging populations, and the urban heat island effect. Several regions in Germany, Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania are identified as hotspots for drought. The economic vulnerability of these regions is primarily due to the reliance of agriculture on rainfed water sources. Coastal cities in Southern Denmark and Northern Germany are vulnerable to storm surges, impacting thousands of residents by disrupting daily life, socioeconomic activities, restricting movement and even necessitating temporary relocation. The mountainous areas of the Trentino Alto Adige region in Italy are hotspots for debris flows and flash floods, and are vulnerable due to their low-lying coastal areas, high population densities, and critical infrastructure. The Italian Alps and the Făgăraș Mountains in the Romanian Carpathians are hotspots for snow avalanches with potential high economic losses for tourism. The Lower Danube region is a hotspot for both droughts and floods, posing significant risks to a unique biodiversity ecosystem, as well as to agriculture, energy infrastructure, and human settlements.

This hotspot analysis in the CROSSEU project provides key comparative risk assessment measures, contributing to the establishment of effective adaptation strategies in the EU and also at regional levels.

This research received funds from the project “Cross-sectoral Framework for Socio-Economic Resilience to Climate Change and Extreme Events in Europe (CROSSEU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe Programme, under Grant agreement n° 101081377.