Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium

Andy Aschwanden*, Mark A Fahnestock, Martin Truffer, Douglas J Brinkerhoff, Regine Hock, Constantine Khroulev, Ruth Mottram, S. Abbas Khan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier-resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbereaav9396
JournalScience Advances
Volume5
Issue number6
Number of pages12
ISSN2375-2548
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Bibliographical note

Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed
under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

Cite this

Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., ... Khan, S. A. (2019). Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. Science Advances, 5(6), [eaav9396]. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396
Aschwanden, Andy ; Fahnestock, Mark A ; Truffer, Martin ; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J ; Hock, Regine ; Khroulev, Constantine ; Mottram, Ruth ; Khan, S. Abbas. / Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. In: Science Advances. 2019 ; Vol. 5, No. 6.
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title = "Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium",
abstract = "The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier-resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45{\%} of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.",
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Aschwanden, A, Fahnestock, MA, Truffer, M, Brinkerhoff, DJ, Hock, R, Khroulev, C, Mottram, R & Khan, SA 2019, 'Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium', Science Advances, vol. 5, no. 6, eaav9396. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396

Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. / Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A; Truffer, Martin; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J; Hock, Regine; Khroulev, Constantine; Mottram, Ruth; Khan, S. Abbas.

In: Science Advances, Vol. 5, No. 6, eaav9396, 2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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AU - Brinkerhoff, Douglas J

AU - Hock, Regine

AU - Khroulev, Constantine

AU - Mottram, Ruth

AU - Khan, S. Abbas

N1 - Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

PY - 2019

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N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier-resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet holds 7.2 m of sea level equivalent and in recent decades, rising temperatures have led to accelerated mass loss. Current ice margin recession is led by the retreat of outlet glaciers, large rivers of ice ending in narrow fjords that drain the interior. We pair an outlet glacier-resolving ice sheet model with a comprehensive uncertainty quantification to estimate Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next millennium. We find that Greenland could contribute 5 to 33 cm to sea level by 2100, with discharge from outlet glaciers contributing 8 to 45% of total mass loss. Our analysis shows that uncertainties in projecting mass loss are dominated by uncertainties in climate scenarios and surface processes, whereas uncertainties in calving and frontal melt play a minor role. We project that Greenland will very likely become ice free within a millennium without substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

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Aschwanden A, Fahnestock MA, Truffer M, Brinkerhoff DJ, Hock R, Khroulev C et al. Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. Science Advances. 2019;5(6). eaav9396. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396