Comprehensive development, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a model for the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil

Hector Forero-Hernandez, Mark Nicholas Jones, Bent Sarup, Anker Degn Jensen, Jens Abildskov, Gürkan Sin*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

A model describing the batch hydrolysis of rapeseed oil including kinetics and mass transfer at subcritical conditions is presented in this paper. The primary purpose of this model is to interpret experimental data collected from typical batch tests and to estimate model parameters. The developed model was further investigated using Monte Carlo simulations to statistically quantify the variability in the model outputs due to uncertainties in the parameter estimates. To understand which parameters in the model are responsible for the output uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis method was used (polynomial chaos expansions-based Sobol sensitivity indices). The results from the sensitivity analysis helped to identify what parameters in the model are influential, giving insight into the robustness and predictive capabilities of the model which form the basis for any model-based decision making for detailed process characterization, design, optimization and operation of the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil.
Original languageEnglish
Article number106631
JournalComputers & Chemical Engineering
Volume133
Number of pages17
ISSN0098-1354
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Vegetable oils
  • Kinetic modeling

Cite this

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title = "Comprehensive development, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a model for the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil",
abstract = "A model describing the batch hydrolysis of rapeseed oil including kinetics and mass transfer at subcritical conditions is presented in this paper. The primary purpose of this model is to interpret experimental data collected from typical batch tests and to estimate model parameters. The developed model was further investigated using Monte Carlo simulations to statistically quantify the variability in the model outputs due to uncertainties in the parameter estimates. To understand which parameters in the model are responsible for the output uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis method was used (polynomial chaos expansions-based Sobol sensitivity indices). The results from the sensitivity analysis helped to identify what parameters in the model are influential, giving insight into the robustness and predictive capabilities of the model which form the basis for any model-based decision making for detailed process characterization, design, optimization and operation of the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil.",
keywords = "Uncertainty analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Vegetable oils, Kinetic modeling",
author = "Hector Forero-Hernandez and Jones, {Mark Nicholas} and Bent Sarup and Jensen, {Anker Degn} and Jens Abildskov and G{\"u}rkan Sin",
year = "2020",
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language = "English",
volume = "133",
journal = "Computers & Chemical Engineering",
issn = "0098-1354",
publisher = "Elsevier",

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T1 - Comprehensive development, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a model for the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil

AU - Forero-Hernandez, Hector

AU - Jones, Mark Nicholas

AU - Sarup, Bent

AU - Jensen, Anker Degn

AU - Abildskov, Jens

AU - Sin, Gürkan

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - A model describing the batch hydrolysis of rapeseed oil including kinetics and mass transfer at subcritical conditions is presented in this paper. The primary purpose of this model is to interpret experimental data collected from typical batch tests and to estimate model parameters. The developed model was further investigated using Monte Carlo simulations to statistically quantify the variability in the model outputs due to uncertainties in the parameter estimates. To understand which parameters in the model are responsible for the output uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis method was used (polynomial chaos expansions-based Sobol sensitivity indices). The results from the sensitivity analysis helped to identify what parameters in the model are influential, giving insight into the robustness and predictive capabilities of the model which form the basis for any model-based decision making for detailed process characterization, design, optimization and operation of the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil.

AB - A model describing the batch hydrolysis of rapeseed oil including kinetics and mass transfer at subcritical conditions is presented in this paper. The primary purpose of this model is to interpret experimental data collected from typical batch tests and to estimate model parameters. The developed model was further investigated using Monte Carlo simulations to statistically quantify the variability in the model outputs due to uncertainties in the parameter estimates. To understand which parameters in the model are responsible for the output uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis method was used (polynomial chaos expansions-based Sobol sensitivity indices). The results from the sensitivity analysis helped to identify what parameters in the model are influential, giving insight into the robustness and predictive capabilities of the model which form the basis for any model-based decision making for detailed process characterization, design, optimization and operation of the hydrolysis of rapeseed oil.

KW - Uncertainty analysis

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Vegetable oils

KW - Kinetic modeling

U2 - 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2019.106631

DO - 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2019.106631

M3 - Journal article

VL - 133

JO - Computers & Chemical Engineering

JF - Computers & Chemical Engineering

SN - 0098-1354

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