Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for modelbased flow prediction in urban drainage systems

Søren Thorndahl, Malte Ahm, Jesper Ellerbek Nielsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, Troels Sander Poulsen, Morten Grum, Thomas Bøvith, Rasphall Gill, Morten Borup, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real-time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 h. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalWater Science and Technology
    Volume68
    Issue number2
    Pages (from-to)472-478
    ISSN0273-1223
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013

    Keywords

    • Drainage
    • Forecasting
    • Radar
    • Real time control
    • Sewage
    • Weather forecasting

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