Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

Søren Thorndahl; Troels Sander Poulsen; Thomas Bøvith; Morten Borup; Malte Ahm; Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen; Morten Grum; Michael R. Rasmussen; Rasphall Gill; Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

Søren Thorndahl
, Troels Sander Poulsen
, Thomas Bøvith
, Morten Borup
, Malte Ahm
, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen
, Morten Grum
, Michael R. Rasmussen
, Rasphall Gill
, Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Aalborg University
Krüger Veolia Water Technologies
Danish Meteorological Institute

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

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Abstract

Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Urban Drainage Modelling : Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 4-6 September 2012
Number of pages	12
Publisher	University of Belgrade
Publication date	2012
ISBN (Print)	978-86-7518-156-9
Publication status	Published - 2012
Event	9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling - Belgrade, Serbia Duration: 4 Sept 2012 → 6 Sept 2012 http://hikom.grf.bg.ac.rs/9UDM/

Conference

Conference	9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Country/Territory	Serbia
City	Belgrade
Period	04/09/2012 → 06/09/2012
Internet address	http://hikom.grf.bg.ac.rs/9UDM/

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Keywords

DMI-HIRLAM
Forecast
Numerical weather model
Radar
Runoff model

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Thorndahl, S., Poulsen, T. S., Bøvith, T., Borup, M., Ahm, M., Nielsen, J. E., Grum, M., Rasmussen, M. R., Gill, R., & Mikkelsen, P. S. (2012). Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems. In Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 4-6 September 2012 University of Belgrade.

@inproceedings{4b1ad16a1bde44438b753eb696af3b8a,

title = "Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems",

abstract = "Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts {\textendash} a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.",

keywords = "DMI-HIRLAM, Forecast, Numerical weather model, Radar, Runoff model",

author = "S{\o}ren Thorndahl and Poulsen, \{Troels Sander\} and Thomas B{\o}vith and Morten Borup and Malte Ahm and Nielsen, \{Jesper Ellerb{\ae}k\} and Morten Grum and Rasmussen, \{Michael R.\} and Rasphall Gill and Mikkelsen, \{Peter Steen\}",

year = "2012",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-86-7518-156-9",

booktitle = "Urban Drainage Modelling",

publisher = "University of Belgrade",

note = "9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling ; Conference date: 04-09-2012 Through 06-09-2012",

url = "http://hikom.grf.bg.ac.rs/9UDM/",

}

Thorndahl, S, Poulsen, TS, Bøvith, T, Borup, M, Ahm, M, Nielsen, JE, Grum, M, Rasmussen, MR, Gill, R & Mikkelsen, PS 2012, Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems. in Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 4-6 September 2012. University of Belgrade, 9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 04/09/2012.

Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems. / Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas et al.
Urban Drainage Modelling: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Belgrade, Serbia, 4-6 September 2012. University of Belgrade, 2012.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Article in proceedings › Research › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

AU - Thorndahl, Søren

AU - Poulsen, Troels Sander

AU - Bøvith, Thomas

AU - Borup, Morten

AU - Ahm, Malte

AU - Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

AU - Grum, Morten

AU - Rasmussen, Michael R.

AU - Gill, Rasphall

AU - Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

AB - Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 hours. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times.

KW - DMI-HIRLAM

KW - Forecast

KW - Numerical weather model

KW - Radar

KW - Runoff model

M3 - Article in proceedings

SN - 978-86-7518-156-9

BT - Urban Drainage Modelling

PB - University of Belgrade

T2 - 9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling

Y2 - 4 September 2012 through 6 September 2012

ER -

Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

Abstract

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

OpenUrl availability

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