Comparative Risk Analysis of Two Culicoides-Borne Diseases in Horses: Equine Encephalosis More Likely to Enter France than African Horse Sickness

C. Faverjon, A. Leblond, S. Lecollinet, Rene Bødker, A. A. de Koeijer, E. A. J. Fischer

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    African horse sickness (AHS) and equine encephalosis (EE) are Culicoides-borne viral diseases that could have the potential to spread across Europe if introduced, thus being potential threats for the European equine industry. Both share similar epidemiology, transmission patterns and geographical distribution. Using stochastic spatiotemporal models of virus entry, we assessed and compared the probabilities of both viruses entering France via two pathways: importation of live-infected animals or importation of infected vectors. Analyses were performed for three consecutive years (2010–2012). Seasonal and regional differences in virus entry probabilities were the same for both diseases. However, the probability of EE entry was much higher than the probability of AHS entry. Interestingly, the most likely entry route differed between AHS and EE: AHS has a higher probability to enter through an infected vector and EE has a higher probability to enter through an infectious host. Consequently, different effective protective measures were identified by ‘what-if’ scenarios for the two diseases. The implementation of vector protection on all animals (equine and bovine) coming from low-risk regions before their importation was the most effective in reducing the probability of AHS entry. On the other hand, the most significant reduction in the probability of EE entry was obtained by the implementation of quarantine before import for horses coming from both EU and non-EU countries. The developed models can be useful to implement risk-based surveillance.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalTransboundary and Emerging Diseases
    Number of pages12
    ISSN1865-1674
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Keywords

    • African horse sickness
    • Equine encephalosis
    • Culicoides
    • Import risk
    • Risk assessment
    • Risk of release
    • Quantitative risk
    • Risk of entry
    • Horses
    • Emerging diseases

    Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Comparative Risk Analysis of Two Culicoides-Borne Diseases in Horses: Equine Encephalosis More Likely to Enter France than African Horse Sickness'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this