TY - RPRT

T1 - Collision Probability Analysis

AU - Hansen, Peter Friis

AU - Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

PY - 1998

Y1 - 1998

N2 - It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for
prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the
ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment
for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary
Islands.The most important ship and crew characteristics are: ship
speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational
bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of
navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters
affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density,
probability distributions of wind speeds, visibility, rain and
snow.Based on a description of the ship traffic composition and
density the first step in the present procedure is a calculation
of the number of ship collision accidents if no aversive
manoeuvres are made. Then with knowledge of the ship
characteristics and a study of the human failure probability, i.e.
a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations,
a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report
documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage
analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released
for crushing of structures giving a collision and finally a
calculation of the inflicted structural damages.

AB - It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for
prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the
ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment
for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary
Islands.The most important ship and crew characteristics are: ship
speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational
bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of
navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters
affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density,
probability distributions of wind speeds, visibility, rain and
snow.Based on a description of the ship traffic composition and
density the first step in the present procedure is a calculation
of the number of ship collision accidents if no aversive
manoeuvres are made. Then with knowledge of the ship
characteristics and a study of the human failure probability, i.e.
a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations,
a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report
documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage
analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released
for crushing of structures giving a collision and finally a
calculation of the inflicted structural damages.

M3 - Report

BT - Collision Probability Analysis

ER -