### Abstract

It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for
prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the
ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment
for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary
Islands.The most important ship and crew characteristics are: ship
speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational
bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of
navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters
affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density,
probability distributions of wind speeds, visibility, rain and
snow.Based on a description of the ship traffic composition and
density the first step in the present procedure is a calculation
of the number of ship collision accidents if no aversive
manoeuvres are made. Then with knowledge of the ship
characteristics and a study of the human failure probability, i.e.
a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations,
a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report
documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage
analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released
for crushing of structures giving a collision and finally a
calculation of the inflicted structural damages.

Original language | English |
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Number of pages | 65 |
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Publication status | Published - 1998 |

## Cite this

Hansen, P. F., & Pedersen, P. T. (1998).

*Collision Probability Analysis*.