Collision Probability Analysis

Peter Friis Hansen, Preben Terndrup Pedersen

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    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds, visibility, rain and snow.Based on a description of the ship traffic composition and density the first step in the present procedure is a calculation of the number of ship collision accidents if no aversive manoeuvres are made. Then with knowledge of the ship characteristics and a study of the human failure probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving a collision and finally a calculation of the inflicted structural damages.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages65
    Publication statusPublished - 1998

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