This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade
from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular
focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results
similar to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of
climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties
related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for
projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor
importance. The perspectives of reducing the uncertainties on climate change impact projections
related to groundwater are discussed with particular focus on the potentials for reducing climate
model biases through use of fully coupled climate-hydrology models.
Refsgaard, J. C., Sonnenborg, T., Butts, M., Christensen, J., Christensen, S., Drews, M.
, Jensen, K. H., Jørgensen, F., Jørgensen, L., Larsen, M. A. D.
, Rasmussen, S., Seaby, L. P., Seifert, D., & Vilhelmsen, T. N. (2016). Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced? Hydrological Sciences Journal
(13), 2312-2324. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1131899