Abstract
The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010, and increases in storm surge levels of up to 0.8 m in 2100 are estimated. The changes in extreme catchment run-off and sea water level have a significant effect on the flood risk in the river system. While most parts today have a low risk of dike overtopping with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.1 % or less, the worst case scenario in 2100 show annual exceedance probabilities of 5 % or more in the downstream part of the river system.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management : Climate Change Management |
| Editors | W. Leal Filho |
| Publisher | Springer |
| Publication date | 2013 |
| Pages | 583-595 |
| Chapter | 38 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 978-3-642-31109-3 |
| Publication status | Published - 2013 |
