China's rising catering industry: overlooked environmental footprints and scope for future interventions

The environmental impacts of China's growing catering industry remain unclear. Using an Environmentally Extended Input-Output model, we provide a first assessment of its carbon, water, and land footprints. Indirect, supply-chain impacts far exceed direct ones:142.0 Mt CO₂e vs 17.1 Mt for carbon, 19.6 vs 1.5 Gt for water, and 10.1 vs 0.2 Mha for land, exposing extensive upstream burdens. Urban residents drive 85.4% of impacts with 3.3 times higher per capita footprints than rural populations, and restaurant meals carry higher carbon and water intensity than home cooking. Without interventions, projected consumption growth would push emissions to 509.4 Mt CO₂e by 2050. However, comprehensive optimization combining energy transition, sustainable agriculture, waste reduction, and dietary shifts could achieve remarkable synergies, reducing carbon and water footprints by 58.3% and land use by 43.2% and limiting 2050 emissions to 215.7 Mt CO₂e. These results demonstrate that coordinated and comprehensvie policies can decouple prosperity from environmental degradation.