Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan; Anders A. Bjørk; Jonathan L. Bamber; Mathieu Morlighem; Michael Bevis; Kurt H. Kjær; Jérémie Mouginot; Anja Løkkegaard; David M. Holland; Andy Aschwanden; Bao Zhang; Veit Helm; Niels J. Korsgaard; William Colgan; Nicolaj K. Larsen; Lin Liu; Karina Hansen; Valentina Barletta; Trine S. Dahl-Jensen; Anne Sofie Søndergaard; Beata M. Csatho; Ingo Sasgen; Jason Box; Toni Schenk

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan^*, Anders A. Bjørk, Jonathan L. Bamber, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Bevis, Kurt H. Kjær, Jérémie Mouginot, Anja Løkkegaard, David M. Holland, Andy Aschwanden, Bao Zhang, Veit Helm, Niels J. Korsgaard, William Colgan, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Lin Liu, Karina Hansen, Valentina Barletta, Trine S. Dahl-Jensen, Anne Sofie SøndergaardBeata M. Csatho, Ingo Sasgen, Jason Box, Toni Schenk

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Original language	English
Article number	5718
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
Number of pages	9
ISSN	2041-1723
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5
Publication status	Published - 2020

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Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.

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Khan, S. A., Bjørk, A. A., Bamber, J. L., Morlighem, M., Bevis, M., Kjær, K. H., Mouginot, J., Løkkegaard, A., Holland, D. M., Aschwanden, A., Zhang, B., Helm, V., Korsgaard, N. J., Colgan, W., Larsen, N. K., Liu, L., Hansen, K., Barletta, V., Dahl-Jensen, T. S., ... Schenk, T. (2020). Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 5718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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abstract = "The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.",

author = "Khan, {Shfaqat A.} and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders A.} and Bamber, {Jonathan L.} and Mathieu Morlighem and Michael Bevis and Kj{\ae}r, {Kurt H.} and J{\'e}r{\'e}mie Mouginot and Anja L{\o}kkegaard and Holland, {David M.} and Andy Aschwanden and Bao Zhang and Veit Helm and Korsgaard, {Niels J.} and William Colgan and Larsen, {Nicolaj K.} and Lin Liu and Karina Hansen and Valentina Barletta and Dahl-Jensen, {Trine S.} and S{\o}ndergaard, {Anne Sofie} and Csatho, {Beata M.} and Ingo Sasgen and Jason Box and Toni Schenk",

note = "Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article{\textquoteright}s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article{\textquoteright}s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.",

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Khan, SA, Bjørk, AA, Bamber, JL, Morlighem, M, Bevis, M, Kjær, KH, Mouginot, J, Løkkegaard, A, Holland, DM, Aschwanden, A, Zhang, B, Helm, V, Korsgaard, NJ, Colgan, W, Larsen, NK, Liu, L, Hansen, K, Barletta, V, Dahl-Jensen, TS, Søndergaard, AS, Csatho, BM, Sasgen, I, Box, J & Schenk, T 2020, 'Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers', Nature Communications, vol. 11, no. 1, 5718. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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AU - Khan, Shfaqat A.

AU - Bjørk, Anders A.

AU - Bamber, Jonathan L.

AU - Morlighem, Mathieu

AU - Bevis, Michael

AU - Kjær, Kurt H.

AU - Mouginot, Jérémie

AU - Løkkegaard, Anja

AU - Holland, David M.

AU - Aschwanden, Andy

AU - Zhang, Bao

AU - Helm, Veit

AU - Korsgaard, Niels J.

AU - Colgan, William

AU - Larsen, Nicolaj K.

AU - Liu, Lin

AU - Hansen, Karina

AU - Barletta, Valentina

AU - Dahl-Jensen, Trine S.

AU - Søndergaard, Anne Sofie

AU - Csatho, Beata M.

AU - Sasgen, Ingo

AU - Box, Jason

AU - Schenk, Toni

N1 - Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

DO - 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33203883

AN - SCOPUS:85096100972

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 11

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 5718

ER -

Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

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