Can we predict short term extreme conditions from 10-minute data only? Paper

Ásta Hannesdóttir*, Gunner Chr. Larsen, Elin Svensson

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

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    Abstract

    In this study we compare 50-year return values of extreme estimates from a model to values estimated from data analysis. The outputs present a suite of extreme wind load conditions relevant for wind turbine design. The input parameters for the model consist of only statistical wind data, rather than high-frequency measurements that are less available. The model generally predicts lower extreme values than prescribed in the IEC wind turbine safety standard and is therefore of great interest to wind turbine manufacturers. This is the first time a systematic validation of the full suite of extreme models is performed in the whole wind speed range. The accuracy of the model predictions is estimated using a comprehensive data set from a complex terrain site. It is found that the mean absolute percentage error between the data analysis and the model outputs lies within the range of 8.1% - 65.8%.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number012025
    Book seriesJournal of Physics: Conference Series
    Volume1452
    Issue number1
    Number of pages17
    ISSN1742-6596
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2020
    EventNAWEA/WINDTECH 2019 Conference - University of Massachusetts , Amherst , United States
    Duration: 14 Oct 201916 Oct 2019
    https://www.naweawindtech2019.org

    Conference

    ConferenceNAWEA/WINDTECH 2019 Conference
    LocationUniversity of Massachusetts
    Country/TerritoryUnited States
    CityAmherst
    Period14/10/201916/10/2019
    Internet address

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