Can we predict short term extreme conditions from 10-minute data only? Paper

Ásta Hannesdóttir*, Gunner Chr. Larsen, Elin Svensson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articleResearchpeer-review

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In this study we compare 50-year return values of extreme estimates from a model to values estimated from data analysis. The outputs present a suite of extreme wind load conditions relevant for wind turbine design. The input parameters for the model consist of only statistical wind data, rather than high-frequency measurements that are less available. The model generally predicts lower extreme values than prescribed in the IEC wind turbine safety standard and is therefore of great interest to wind turbine manufacturers. This is the first time a systematic validation of the full suite of extreme models is performed in the whole wind speed range. The accuracy of the model predictions is estimated using a comprehensive data set from a complex terrain site. It is found that the mean absolute percentage error between the data analysis and the model outputs lies within the range of 8.1% - 65.8%.
Original languageEnglish
Article number012025
Book seriesJournal of Physics: Conference Series
Issue number1
Number of pages17
Publication statusPublished - 2020
EventNAWEA/WINDTECH 2019 - University of Massachusetts , Amherst , United States
Duration: 14 Oct 201916 Oct 2019


ConferenceNAWEA/WINDTECH 2019
LocationUniversity of Massachusetts
Country/TerritoryUnited States
Internet address


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