Calculation of mean outcrossing rates of non-Gaussian processes with stochastic input parameters - Reliability of containers stowed on ships in severe sea

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Abstract

Mean outcrossing rates can be used as a basis for decision support for ships in severe sea. The article describes a procedure for calculating the mean outcrossing rate of non-Gaussian processes with stochastic input parameters. The procedure is based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) and stochastic parameters are incorporated by carrying out a number of FORM calculations corresponding to combinations of specific values of the stochastic parameters. Subsequently, the individual FORM calculation is weighted according to the joint probability with which the specific combination of parameter values is expected to occur, and the final result, the mean outcrossing rate, is obtained by summation. The derived procedure is illustrated by an example considering the forces in containers stowed on ships and, in particular, results are presented for the so-called racking failure in the containers. The results of the procedure are compared with brute force simulations obtained by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and good agreement is observed. Importantly, the procedure requires significantly less CPU time compared to MCS to produce mean outcrossing rates.
Original languageEnglish
JournalProbabilistic Engineering Mechanics
Volume25
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)206-217
ISSN0266-8920
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • Decision support systems for ships
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Mean outcrossing rate
  • Non-Gaussian processes
  • Racking failure
  • Stowed containers
  • First-order reliability method (FORM)

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