Abstract
Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase
the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate
- in the statistical sense - future ship responses on a time
scale of the order of 1-3 hours taking into account speed and
course changes. The calculations depend on both operational
and environmental parameters that are known only in the statistical
sense. The present paper suggests a procedure to incorporate
random variables and associated uncertainties in calculations
of outcrossing rates, which are the basis for risk-based
DSS. The procedure is based on parallel system analysis, and
the paper derives and describes the main ideas. The concept is
illustrated by an example, where the limit state of a non-linear
ship response is considered. The results from the parallel system
analysis are in agreement with corresponding Monte Carlo simulations.
However, the computational speed of the parallel system
analysis proved slower than expected. Moreover, it is important
that the failure surface of the limit state is smooth, otherwise the
parallel system analysis may not be applicable.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of IMECE'08 : ASME Intl. Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition |
| Publication date | 2008 |
| Publication status | Published - 2008 |
| Event | ASME Intl. Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition - Duration: 1 Jan 2008 → … |
Conference
| Conference | ASME Intl. Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition |
|---|---|
| Period | 01/01/2008 → … |