Building and system design's impact on thermal resilience to overheating during heatwaves: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Rising heatwaves necessitate thermally resilient buildings to mitigate occupant heat-stress and mortality, ensuring habitable conditions during thermal shocks. This study’s aim and novelty is to identify key design parameters affecting three thermal resilience aspects -(i) shock impact or SET-Dh i.e., degree hours above standard effective temperature threshold of 28 °C (ii) absorptivity time (t_abs) and (iii) recovery time (t_rec) across varying degrees of shock intensities (doS-low, medium and high). A reference Belgian apartment is simulated with varying design parameters (building orientation, envelope and glazing properties, glazing percentage, airtightness, operation and control of passive strategies, cooling systems) during three types of heatwaves. Uncertainty analysis quantified the impact of design variations on thermal resilience, while global sensitivity analysis pinpointed key parameters affecting resilience during different shocks. The study shows that while 87 % of design variations remain thermally resilient during shorter shocks, only 21 % do so during longer shocks and that WWR, cooling capacity, and passive strategies (operation of natural night ventilation and solar shading) have twice the impact on thermal resilience compared to building orientation and glazing properties. While t_abs is affected by heat build-up factors (e.g., WWR, solar shading), t_rec is influenced by heat removal factors (e.g., cooling capacity, NNV). Parameters such as heavy thermal mass extend heat absorption but also delays heat dissipation during prolonged heatwaves. This study guides designers and architects to focus on interventions that enhance buildings’ thermal resilience during both short and long heatwaves, aiding in climate adaptation and the ability to withstand future extreme heat periods.