Bridging the Gap in Transport Project Evaluation: Accounting for the Inaccuracies in Demand Forecasts and Construction Costs Estimations

Kim Bang Salling, Steen Leleur

    Research output: Contribution to conferenceConference abstract for conferenceResearchpeer-review

    Abstract

    For decades researchers have claimed that demand forecasts and construction costs estimations are assigned with large degrees of uncertainty, commonly referred to as Optimism Bias. A severe consequence is that ex-ante socio-economic evaluation of infrastructure projects becomes inaccurate and can lead to unsatisfactory investment decisions. Thus there is a need for better risk assessment and decision support, which is addressed by the recently developed UNITE-DSS model. It is argued that this simulation-based model can offer decision makers new and better ways to deal with risk assessment.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication date2014
    Number of pages1
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    EventConference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies. - Barcelona International Convention Center, Barcelona, Spain
    Duration: 13 Jul 201418 Jul 2014
    Conference number: 20

    Conference

    ConferenceConference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies.
    Number20
    LocationBarcelona International Convention Center
    CountrySpain
    CityBarcelona
    Period13/07/201418/07/2014

    Cite this

    Salling, K. B., & Leleur, S. (2014). Bridging the Gap in Transport Project Evaluation: Accounting for the Inaccuracies in Demand Forecasts and Construction Costs Estimations. Abstract from Conference of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies., Barcelona, Spain. http://ifors2014.org/