Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

Peggy Mischke (Author)

    Research output: Non-textual formSound/Visual production (digital)Research

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    Abstract

    This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario follows the pathway of the Asia Modelling Exercise.
    We find that soft-linking allows "bridging the gap" and reducing uncertainty between these models. Without soft-linking, baseline result ranges for China in 2050 are 240-260 EJ in primary energy, 180-200 EJ in final energy, 8-10 GWh in electricity production and 15-18 Gt in carbon dioxide emissions.
    The highest uncertainty in modelling results can be mapped for China's future coal use in 2050, in particular in electricity production.
    Sub-regional China features, when incorporated into complex global models, do not increase uncertainty in China-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context.
    Original languageEnglish
    Publication date2014
    Media of outputPowerPoint
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    Event66th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting - UN City, Copenhagen, Denmark
    Duration: 17 Nov 201421 Nov 2014
    Conference number: 66

    Conference

    Conference66th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting
    Number66
    LocationUN City
    CountryDenmark
    CityCopenhagen
    Period17/11/201421/11/2014

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