Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development)

-den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy)

Jørgen Nørgaard

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Communication

Abstract

The article takes the 1972 report, The Limits to Growth as its starting point, briefly explaining the Systam Dynamics model used for the report's analyses. Focus is on the important role of population. The simple model of I = PxAxT, where I is the environmental Impact, P population, A is the Affluence and T the ecoimpact-intensity of the Technology used. Various scenarios ar shown, illustrating how a choice of 1.6 birth per woman on average instead of 2.6 birth, will in 2150 result in 3.6 billion people on earth instead of 27 billions. The article warns against the believe that growth in GDP can forever be kept sustainable by means of technological progress alone. The hope is that it seems rather easy world wide to convince people to have few children, say at or below two per woman on average, and that it is an inexpensive measure to implement.
Original languageDanish
JournalAktuel Naturvidenskab
Issue number5, nov.
ISSN1399-2309
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • Limits to Growth
  • Futurology
  • I = PxAxT model
  • Population

Cite this

Nørgaard, Jørgen. / Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development) : -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy). In: Aktuel Naturvidenskab. 2010 ; No. 5, nov.
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abstract = "The article takes the 1972 report, The Limits to Growth as its starting point, briefly explaining the Systam Dynamics model used for the report's analyses. Focus is on the important role of population. The simple model of I = PxAxT, where I is the environmental Impact, P population, A is the Affluence and T the ecoimpact-intensity of the Technology used. Various scenarios ar shown, illustrating how a choice of 1.6 birth per woman on average instead of 2.6 birth, will in 2150 result in 3.6 billion people on earth instead of 27 billions. The article warns against the believe that growth in GDP can forever be kept sustainable by means of technological progress alone. The hope is that it seems rather easy world wide to convince people to have few children, say at or below two per woman on average, and that it is an inexpensive measure to implement.",
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Nørgaard, J 2010, 'Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development): -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy)', Aktuel Naturvidenskab, no. 5, nov..

Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development) : -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy). / Nørgaard, Jørgen.

In: Aktuel Naturvidenskab, No. 5, nov., 2010.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Communication

TY - JOUR

T1 - Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development)

T2 - -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy)

AU - Nørgaard, Jørgen

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - The article takes the 1972 report, The Limits to Growth as its starting point, briefly explaining the Systam Dynamics model used for the report's analyses. Focus is on the important role of population. The simple model of I = PxAxT, where I is the environmental Impact, P population, A is the Affluence and T the ecoimpact-intensity of the Technology used. Various scenarios ar shown, illustrating how a choice of 1.6 birth per woman on average instead of 2.6 birth, will in 2150 result in 3.6 billion people on earth instead of 27 billions. The article warns against the believe that growth in GDP can forever be kept sustainable by means of technological progress alone. The hope is that it seems rather easy world wide to convince people to have few children, say at or below two per woman on average, and that it is an inexpensive measure to implement.

AB - The article takes the 1972 report, The Limits to Growth as its starting point, briefly explaining the Systam Dynamics model used for the report's analyses. Focus is on the important role of population. The simple model of I = PxAxT, where I is the environmental Impact, P population, A is the Affluence and T the ecoimpact-intensity of the Technology used. Various scenarios ar shown, illustrating how a choice of 1.6 birth per woman on average instead of 2.6 birth, will in 2150 result in 3.6 billion people on earth instead of 27 billions. The article warns against the believe that growth in GDP can forever be kept sustainable by means of technological progress alone. The hope is that it seems rather easy world wide to convince people to have few children, say at or below two per woman on average, and that it is an inexpensive measure to implement.

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KW - Futurology

KW - I = PxAxT model

KW - Population

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JO - Aktuel Naturvidenskab

JF - Aktuel Naturvidenskab

SN - 1399-2309

IS - 5, nov.

ER -

Nørgaard J. Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development): -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy). Aktuel Naturvidenskab. 2010;(5, nov.).