Befolkningsudviklingen (Population Development): -den glemte faktor i miljøpolitikken (- the forgotten factor in the environmental policy)

Jørgen Nørgaard

    Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleCommunication


    The article takes the 1972 report, The Limits to Growth as its starting point, briefly explaining the Systam Dynamics model used for the report's analyses. Focus is on the important role of population. The simple model of I = PxAxT, where I is the environmental Impact, P population, A is the Affluence and T the ecoimpact-intensity of the Technology used. Various scenarios ar shown, illustrating how a choice of 1.6 birth per woman on average instead of 2.6 birth, will in 2150 result in 3.6 billion people on earth instead of 27 billions. The article warns against the believe that growth in GDP can forever be kept sustainable by means of technological progress alone. The hope is that it seems rather easy world wide to convince people to have few children, say at or below two per woman on average, and that it is an inexpensive measure to implement.
    Original languageDanish
    JournalAktuel Naturvidenskab
    Issue number5, nov.
    Publication statusPublished - 2010


    • Limits to Growth
    • Futurology
    • I = PxAxT model
    • Population

    Cite this