Automatic Threshold Setting and Its Uncertainty Quantification in Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring System

Kun Saptohartyadi Marhadi, Georgios Alexandros Skrimpas

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Abstract

Setting optimal alarm thresholds in vibration based condition monitoring system is inherently difficult. There are no established thresholds for many vibration based measurements. Most of the time, the thresholds are set based on statistics of the collected data available. Often times the underlying probability distribution that describes the data is not known. Choosing an incorrect distribution to describe the data and then setting up thresholds based on the chosen distribution could result in sub-optimal thresholds. Moreover, in wind turbine applications the collected data available may not represent the whole operating conditions of a turbine, which results in uncertainty in the parameters of the fitted probability distribution and the thresholds calculated. In this study, Johnson, Normal, and Weibull distributions are investigated; which distribution can best fit vibration data collected from a period of time. False alarm rate resulted from using threshold determined from each distribution is used as a measure to determine which distribution is the most appropriate. This study shows that using Johnson distribution can eliminate testing or fitting various distributions to the data, and have more direct approach to obtain optimal thresholds. To quantify uncertainty in the thresholds due to limited data, implementations with bootstrap method and Bayesian inference are investigated.
Original languageEnglish
JournalInternational Journal of Prognostics and Health Management
Volume6
Issue numberSpecial Issue Uncertainty in PHM
Number of pages15
ISSN2153-2648
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Bibliographical note

Kun Marhadi et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms
of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original author and source are credited.

Keywords

  • Uncertainty Quantification
  • Johnson distribution
  • Alarm Threshold
  • Wind turbine condition monitoring

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